山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade agreement dispute has resurfaced, and the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to begin, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. There will still be an inflation test in the middle of the month. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.81%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.72% [2]. - Core Logic: Short - term trade agreement disputes, upcoming Russia - Ukraine talks leading to reduced risk - aversion demand; increased US stagflation risk, weakened employment, and rebounding interest - rate cut expectations; inflation test in the middle of the month [2]. - Attributes Analysis - Risk - Aversion Attribute: US President Trump said on social media on Friday that he will meet with Russian President Putin in Alaska on August 15 to discuss ending the Ukraine war [2]. - Monetary Attribute: US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls in the previous two months were revised down by 258,000, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September. The market's expected probability of a Fed rate cut in September has soared from about 40% before the non - farm data to over 80%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The decline of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields has encountered resistance [2]. - Commodity Attribute: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [2]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2][3]. - Data Summary: Various data such as international and domestic gold prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and gold ETF are provided, showing different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [3]. Silver - Price Anchor: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [6]. - Fund and Inventory Situation: The net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently [6]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [7]. - Data Summary: Various data such as international and domestic silver prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and silver ETF are provided, showing different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [7]. Fundamental Key Data - Fed - Related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25. The Fed's total assets are 6,691.854 billion US dollars, a decrease of 762 million US dollars compared with the previous week. M2 has increased by 0.37% year - on - year [9]. - Other Key Data: Data on ten - year US Treasury real yields, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys are provided, showing different changes [9][10][11]. - Central Bank Gold Reserve and Related Ratios: Data on central bank gold reserves of China, the US, and the world, as well as ratios such as gold/foreign exchange reserves and IMF foreign exchange reserve proportions are provided, showing different changes [11][12]. - Fed Interest Rate Expectations: The probability of different Fed interest rate ranges at different meeting dates from 2025 to 2026 is provided [13].