“反内卷”的宏观影响PPI有望温和改善

Group 1: Economic Overview - China's PPI has been in negative growth for 33 consecutive months as of June 2025, with industrial enterprise profit growth rates of -4.0%, -2.3%, -3.3%, and -1.8% for the years 2022 to 2025 respectively[11] - The manufacturing PMI production and new orders differential has remained high since 2017, indicating a recovery only began in Q3 2024[11] - Economic growth is projected at 5.0% for 2024 and 5.4% and 5.2% for the first two quarters of 2025, compared to a decline from 7.9% to 6.8% from 2012 to 2016[31] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The number of industrial sectors experiencing negative price growth increased from 23 in 2023 to 28 in the first half of 2025, driven by supply-demand mismatches and "involution" in emerging industries[13] - Traditional industries like coal, black metals, and petrochemicals saw significant price declines, with PPI changes of -15.5%, -10.2%, and -9.8% respectively in the first half of 2025[16] - Emerging industries such as photovoltaics and lithium batteries are facing challenges due to insufficient effective demand and intensified competition, leading to a focus on improving profitability and innovation[64] Group 3: Policy and Market Response - The government is implementing measures to improve market competition and stabilize PPI, with a focus on market-oriented and legal frameworks to guide supply adjustments[63] - The "anti-involution" initiative aims to enhance resource allocation and promote technological innovation, with a long-term view of improving economic efficiency[64] - Macro policies emphasize "sustained efforts and timely reinforcement" to enhance flexibility and predictability in economic management[64] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include significant changes in the global trade environment, geopolitical tensions, unstable consumer expectations, and the potential ineffectiveness of "anti-involution" measures[66]