高频数据跟踪：钢铁产业链回暖，原油价格下行

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: August 11, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data shows that the production end has differentiated heat, with the steel industry chain warming up, while asphalt and tire operating rates declining. The transaction area of commercial housing is rising slightly, and prices are showing a differentiated trend with falling crude oil prices and rising prices of coking coal, non - ferrous metals, rebar, and agricultural products. The domestic SCFI and CCFI shipping indices are continuously falling, while the BDI is slightly rising. Short - term focus should be on the implementation of new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][33] Summary by Directory 1. Production - Steel Industry Chain: The utilization rate of coke oven capacity increased by 0.27 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.29 pct, and rebar production increased by 10.12 tons in the week of August 8. The inventory of rebar also increased by 6.05 tons [2][9] - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate decreased by 1.4 pct in the week of August 6 [9] - Chemical Industry: The PX operating rate remained flat compared with the previous week, while the PTA operating rate increased by 2.0 pct on August 7 [9] - Automobile Tires: The operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pct, and that of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.1 pct in the week of August 7 [10] 2. Demand - Real Estate: In the week of August 3, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 21.81 square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio of commercial housing in 10 large cities decreased by 14.75, the land supply area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased by 127.18 square meters, and the transaction premium rate of residential land decreased by 6.33% [14] - Movie Box Office: In the week of August 3, the total national movie box office revenue increased by 562 million yuan compared with the previous week [14] - Automobile: In the week of July 31, the average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 31,000 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 94,000 vehicles [18] - Shipping Index: In the week of August 8, the SCFI decreased by 3.94%, the CCFI decreased by 2.56%, and the BDI increased by 1.64% [3][21] 3. Prices - Energy: The price of Brent crude oil decreased by 4.65% to $66.43 per barrel in the week of August 7. The futures price of coking coal increased by 9.37% to 1,219.5 yuan per ton in the week of August 8 [23] - Metals: The futures prices of LME copper, aluminum, and zinc increased by 1.40%, 1.69%, and 3.83% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.06% on August 8 [24] - Agricultural Products: The overall price of agricultural products rebounded, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices rising by 0.75%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by - 0.92%, - 2.72%, + 4.74%, and - 0.71% respectively compared with the previous week on August 8 [25][27] 4. Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: The seven - day moving average of subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased by 281,600 and 672,900 person - times respectively in the week of August 7 [29] - Flight Volume: The seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume decreased by 2.29 flights, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) increased by 7.29 flights, and that of international flights increased by 11.86 flights in the week of August 7 [30] - Urban Traffic: The seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 0.01 to 1.66 on August 8 [30] 5. Summary - The steel industry chain is warming up, and the price of crude oil is falling. Short - term focus should be on the implementation of new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [33]