【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel Products: The fundamentals and macro - sentiment resonate, and steel prices are expected to be slightly stronger in consolidation. Recently, the prices fluctuate greatly, and it is advisable to try long positions on dips. Pay attention to macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The fundamental data of coking coal has improved. Although the short - term price fluctuates sharply, the overall trend is strong. Focus on changes in coal production data, the sustainability of high daily iron - water production in steel mills, and changes in imported coal clearance [10]. - Ferroalloys: In the short term, the demand for alloys is still supported, but the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose, and the impact of inventory is neutral to weak. The price is expected to follow the market trend, and the fluctuation range may increase. With the start of a new round of steel procurement, pay attention to the price guidance. Monitor the evolution of tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - Futures and Spot Prices: From August 1 to August 8, 2025, most futures and spot prices of black products increased. For example, the futures price of coking coal (JM2601) rose 12.31% from 1092.5 to 1227, and the spot price of coking coal (Jiexiu medium - sulfur primary coking coal ex - factory price) rose 4.17% from 1200 to 1250. Only the spot price of ferrosilicon decreased by 0.91% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - Steel Products: The fundamentals are average, and the weak demand and rainy season affect the construction, which is difficult to improve in the short term. The macro - sentiment has cooled but still stimulates the market. With the approaching parade, there are occasional news of production restrictions in the north. The short - term market volatility increases, and it is advisable to try long positions on dips before the parade [9]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Last week, coking coal futures prices fluctuated strongly, and coke enterprises started the 6th round of price hikes. In terms of fundamentals, coal production is expected to have limited growth in the short term, and the structural inventory pressure of coking coal has been significantly relieved. The raw material replenishment of coking plants and steel mills has slowed down, and the production of steel mills remains at a relatively high level, but the production restrictions in Tangshan affect the raw material demand [10]. - Ferroalloys: The macro - sentiment has cooled, and the market is in a policy window period. The terminal demand is in the off - season, but relevant policies support the price. The black metal market is affected by weak fundamentals and supply - side disturbances. The supply and demand pattern of ferroalloys is relatively loose, and the inventory is at a relatively high level compared with the same period last year. The cost of ferromanganese has some support, while the cost of ferrosilicon has no obvious change. It is expected that the price will follow the market trend, and the new round of steel procurement price guidance should be noted [11]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - Rebar: Last week, the output was 221.18 million tons, the apparent demand was 210.79 million tons, the social inventory was 388.48 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 10.39 million tons. The long - process output was 190.54 million tons, and the short - process output was 30.64 million tons. The basis in Shanghai and Beijing showed different trends [13][18][21]. - Hot - Rolled Coils: Last week, the output was 314.89 million tons, the apparent demand was 306.21 million tons, the social inventory was 278.75 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 8.68 million tons. The basis in Shanghai showed an upward trend [25][30]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Coke Inventory: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 907.35 million tons, a decrease of 8.05 million tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of independent coke enterprises, 247 steel mills, and 4 ports showed different changes [48]. - Coking Coal Inventory: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 2486.02 million tons, a decrease of 7.27 million tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of each part showed different trends [54]. - Other Data: The average profit per ton of independent coke enterprises was - 16 yuan, the capacity utilization rate was 74%, and the daily coke output was 65.1 million tons. The daily output of clean coal in 523 coking coal mines was 75.5 million tons, and the daily output of hot metal in 247 steel mills was 240.32 million tons. The ratios of coke to coking coal futures prices and the basis and spreads of coke and coking coal showed different changes [63][64][67]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - Spot Prices: The price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port decreased slightly, the price of ferromanganese increased, and the price of ferrosilicon decreased [79]. - Inventory: The port inventory of manganese ore decreased, and the inventory of ferromanganese decreased slightly while the inventory of ferrosilicon increased. The average available days of inventory for both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon in July decreased compared with the previous month and the same period last year [81][93][96]. - Output and Demand: The output of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon increased last week, and the demand for both in five major steel products also increased. The monthly output of manganese ore imports, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon showed different trends [83][87][89]. - Steel Mill Procurement Prices: The procurement prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon by Hebei Iron and Steel and other steel mills showed different changes in July [102].