【华宝期货】有色金属周报-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For aluminum, due to repeated macro - expectations, the price is expected to remain high in the short term, and future attention should be paid to the development of news and the off - season situation of downstream industries [11] - For zinc, short - term focus should be on macro - sentiment, while in the medium and long term, supply increase will put pressure on the upper limit, and the zinc price is running high, so attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [14] - For tin, the short - term situation is one of weak supply and demand, and the downward pressure will increase in the future [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 Colored Weekly Market Review - Copper (CU2509): The closing price of the futures main contract on August 8, 2025, was 78,490, a weekly increase of 90 or 0.11%. The spot price was 78,505, a weekly increase of 180 or 0.23% [8] - Aluminum (AL2509): The closing price of the futures main contract was 20,685, a weekly increase of 175 or 0.85%. The spot price was 20,630, a weekly increase of 140 or 0.68% [8] - Zinc (ZN2509): The closing price of the futures main contract was 22,515, a weekly increase of 195 or 0.87%. The spot price was 22,042, a weekly decrease of 144 or - 0.65% [8] - Tin (SN2509): The closing price of the futures main contract was 267,780, a weekly increase of 2,830 or 1.07%. The spot price was 268,250, a weekly increase of 3,500 or 1.32% [8] - Nickel (NI2509): The closing price of the futures main contract was 121,180, a weekly increase of 1,410 or 1.18%. The spot price was 122,190, a weekly increase of 1,230 or 1.02% [8] 3.2 02 This Week's Colored Market Forecast Aluminum - Logic: Last week, the aluminum price was high. The rising expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut on the macro - level boosted the sentiment and basic metals. Fundamentally, the supply changed little, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly. Affected by the rainy season, the bauxite shipment from Guinea decreased from late June to July, and the import volume is expected to decline starting in August. The domestic bauxite supply has limited increase. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%, supported by grid orders, but the industry recovery rhythm was uneven, and the peak - season characteristics were not fully shown. The aluminum foil operating rate decreased slightly to 68.4%, and the industry is expected to continue to shrink. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises remained stable at 53.1%, affected by weak off - season demand and high - temperature holidays. As of August 11, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 587,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared with last Thursday and last Monday. The uneven arrival of goods caused short - term inventory fluctuations, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term [10] - Viewpoint: The macro - expectation is volatile. The price is expected to remain high in the short term, and future attention should be paid to the development of news and the off - season situation of downstream industries [11] - Later Attention/Market Risks: Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical crises, the implementation of macro - policies, the situation of supply increase, and the release of consumption [12] Zinc - Logic: Last week, the zinc price fluctuated strongly. The domestic zinc ore processing fee remained stable, and the imported zinc ore processing fee increased. The Shanghai - London ratio fell slightly to around 8.0, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. The galvanizing operating rate was 57.35%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points from last week. In terms of raw material inventory, some enterprises replenished stocks at low prices at the beginning of the week, and the replenishment sentiment weakened as the zinc price rebounded. The zinc ingot inventory increased slightly. In August, the domestic situation of oversupply and weak consumption will continue, with clear expectations of loose supply and limited improvement in demand due to the off - season. As of August 11, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 119,200 tons, an increase of 11,900 tons compared with August 4 and 6,000 tons compared with August 7 [13] - Viewpoint: Short - term focus should be on macro - sentiment, while in the medium and long term, supply increase will put pressure on the upper limit, and the zinc price is running high, so attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [14] - Later Attention/Market Risks: Attention should be paid to the implementation of macro - policies, the release of mine production, and the release of consumption [15] Tin - Logic: After the mining license in Wa State, Myanmar, was completed, preparations for resuming production are still underway. The market has high expectations for future tin ore output, and a large output is expected at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter. The operating rates in Yunnan and Guangxi increased slightly, but the processing fee remained low. The smelter's inventory was still low, and the shortage of raw materials was alleviated but still existed. The downstream performance was weaker than in the first half of the year, with signs of decline in the automobile and home - appliance industries. The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand [16] - Viewpoint: The short - term situation is one of weak supply and demand, and the downward pressure will increase in the future [16] - Later Attention/Market Risks: Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the trade policies of various countries [16] 3.3 03 Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 640 yuan/ton from August 1 to August 8, with a year - on - year increase of 5; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 570 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 20; the average price of imported bauxite index was 74.1 dollars/ton on August 8, an increase of 0.19 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.11. The port - aggregated arrival volume on August 8 was 328,890 tons, a decrease of 136,680 tons from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 92,030 tons; the port - aggregated departure volume was 335,170 tons, a decrease of 176,000 tons from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 10,350 tons [20][23] - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan remained unchanged at 3,240 yuan/ton from August 1 to August 8, with a year - on - year decrease of 645; the full cost on August 8 was 2,873.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.6 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 15.6; the profit in Shanxi on August 8 was 291.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.28 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 670.28 [26] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The total cost on August 8 was 16,738.04 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.38 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 928.23; the regional price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 10 yuan/ton on August 8, a decrease of 10 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 50. The operating rate of aluminum cables on August 7 was 61.8, unchanged from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 7.2; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 68.4, a decrease of 0.5 from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.3; the operating rate of aluminum plates and strips was 64, an increase of 0.8 from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.4; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 49.5, a decrease of 0.5 from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.7; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 55.6, an increase of 1 from July 31, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.1, unchanged from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.3. The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai on August 7 was 91,300 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from July 31, with a year - on - year increase of 52,300 tons; the total bonded - area inventory was 111,300 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons from July 31, with a year - on - year increase of 68,100 tons; the social inventory on August 11 was 587,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from August 4, with a year - on - year decrease of 242,000 tons; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas on August 4 was 110,700 tons, an increase of 18,200 tons from July 28, with a year - on - year decrease of 2,900 tons. The SHFE inventory on August 8 was 113,614 tons, a decrease of 3,913 tons from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 177,784 tons; the LME inventory was 470,575 tons, an increase of 7,775 tons from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 440,375 tons. The basis of SMM A00 aluminum for the current month on August 8 was - 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 65; the basis for the main contract was - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 130; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 285. The basis of SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan for the current month on August 8 was - 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 95; the basis for the main contract was - 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 160; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 315. The spread between the current month and the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum on August 8 was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 50; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 215 [28][32][38] Zinc - Zinc Concentrate: The price of domestic zinc concentrate on August 8 was 17,020 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 36 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 2,714; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,900 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 100 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 2,450; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 82.25 dollars/dry ton, an increase of 3.5 from August 1. The enterprise production profit on August 8 was 4,020 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 36 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 1,962; the import profit and loss was - 1,414.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 641.55 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 1,800.84; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang on August 8 was 100,000 physical tons, an increase of 10,000 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 80,000 [55][58] - Refined Zinc: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM seven regions on August 11 was 119,200 tons, an increase of 11,900 tons from August 4, with a year - on - year decrease of 17,900 tons; the bonded - area inventory of zinc ingots on August 7 was 7,000 tons, unchanged from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 1,000 tons; the SHFE refined zinc inventory on August 8 was 65,917 tons, an increase of 4,193 tons from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 21,551 tons; the LME zinc inventory on August 8 was 81,500 tons, a decrease of 19,325 tons from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 160,525 tons [61] - Galvanizing: The output on August 7 was 331,050 tons, a decrease of 7,030 tons from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 16,525 tons; the operating rate was 57.35, an increase of 0.58 from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.28; the raw - material inventory on August 7 was 13,570 tons, an increase of 310 from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 435 tons; the finished - product inventory was 352,400 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 115,800 tons [64] - Zinc Basis: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot for the current month on August 8 was - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 160; the basis for the main contract was - 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 155; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 275. The spread between the current month and the main contract of Shanghai Zinc on August 8 was - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 5; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 115 [67][68] Tin - Refined Tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces on August 8 was 0.289 million tons, an increase of 0.002 from the previous week, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.02; the combined operating rate was 59.64%, an increase of 0.41 from the previous week, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.13 [74] - Tin Ingot Inventory: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory on August 8 was 7,805 tons, an increase of 134 from the previous week, with a year - on - year decrease of 3,017; the social inventory of tin ingots in different regions of China was 10,2