能源日报-20250811

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] Core Views - The oil market has a continuous inventory build - up pressure, and the balance sheet shows that the supply - demand surplus in the fourth quarter is about twice that of the first three quarters. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money options on SC2510 when the price drops [2]. - The decline in crude oil leads to a continued weakness in fuel - related futures. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure in the short term, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price spread is expected to continue to narrow [3]. - The asphalt supply pressure is currently limited, demand has room for recovery, and the low inventory supports the price. The BU crack spread is expected to be strong in the near term [4]. - The LPG price has stabilized slightly. The refinery gas price has room for further decline. The market is in a low - level oscillation after initially pricing in the negative expectations [5]. Summaries by Related Categories Crude Oil - Since the third quarter, global oil inventories have increased by 1.1%, similar to the first and second quarters. The supply - demand surplus in the fourth quarter is expected to double compared to the previous three quarters. After the geopolitical risk concerns eased last week, the market focused on the supply - demand bearish expectations. Attention should be paid to the US - Russia leaders' meeting this Friday, and a double - buy strategy for out - of - the - money options on SC2510 is recommended [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The decline in crude oil causes the fuel - related futures to remain weak. In August, the Asian fuel oil market has abundant arrivals and weak ship - bunkering demand. The Singapore fuel oil inventory remains high, and the diesel crack spread has dropped by $7 per barrel since mid - July. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price spread is expected to narrow [3]. Asphalt - Today, oil product futures generally declined, with BU having the smallest decline. The August production plan decreased significantly compared to July, but some refineries exceeded the production plan. The demand recovery in South China is delayed, and the northern demand is weak. The refinery shipments are flat compared to last week, with the cumulative year - on - year increase rising by 1 percentage point. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly but remains at a low level in recent years. The supply pressure is limited, and the low inventory supports the price. The BU crack spread is expected to be strong [4]. LPG - The overseas LPG export market remains loose, but the increase in East Asian chemical procurement provides support. The import volume increased at the beginning of August, and the refinery gas price has room for further decline. The chemical profit margin and the ratio to naphtha are at a good level. After the high - operating - rate period, the sustainability of the good chemical profit margin should be monitored. The futures - spot spread has reached a high level, and the market is in a low - level oscillation after initially pricing in the negative expectations [5]