Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE) futures market shows a sideways consolidation pattern, with the main 2509 contract rising 0.29% to close at 13,680 yuan/ton. The Fed's dovish stance supports a slight rebound in US cotton prices, which rose 0.42% overnight to 66.64 cents/pound. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and domestic policy trends [2]. - Internationally, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates this year, and the global cotton supply - demand remains loose with weak US cotton export demand, leading to a weak consolidation of international cotton prices. Domestically, although the cotton commercial inventory is decreasing, it is still at a high level. With the new cotton harvest likely to be abundant this year and weak demand, the upside potential of ZCE cotton is limited [17]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - The ZCE main 2509 contract of cotton rose 0.29%, closing at 13,680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position and trading volume of ZCE cotton decreased significantly, and the main force has almost completed the roll - over. The Fed's dovish stance supports a slight rebound in US cotton prices [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 11, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,452 (-128) pieces, including 8,172 (-80) registered warehouse receipts and 282 (-48) valid forecasts [3]. - As of August 7, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises in major regions was 32.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. Downstream fabric mills are operating at a low level, and textile enterprises are in the off - season, purchasing raw materials on - demand. Xinjiang's inventory is on the rise, with large - scale mills having a 35 - 40 - day inventory and inland enterprises having a 15 - 20 - day inventory [4][5]. - From August 9 to 14, there will be high - temperature weather above 35°C in most areas of southern and eastern Xinjiang. Some cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang are at high or relatively high risk [5]. - As of the end of July, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons (22.62%) from the previous month and 588,400 tons (21.18%) lower than the same period last year. The industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous month. The yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.67 days, an increase of 0.44 days from the previous month [5]. - As of July 31, 2025 - 26, Pakistan has harvested over 609,000 bales of seed cotton, while the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association reported a cotton arrival of 301,000 bales [6]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit, yarn import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [8][9][11]
棉花：美棉低位支撑小幅反弹，郑棉横盘整理
Jin Shi Qi Huo·2025-08-11 14:53