软商品日报-20250811

Report Investment Ratings - Wood, 20 - rubber, Butadiene rubber: Bullish with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar, Apple, Natural rubber: No clear short - term trend, with poor market operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] Core Views - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For some commodities, supply and demand, inventory, and weather conditions are key factors affecting prices. Specific trading strategies vary according to different commodity conditions [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose, and the spot sales basis was stable with average trading. After continuous decline, prices stabilized. Low inventory supported prices, but weak downstream orders dragged them down. In July, inventory digestion was good, and it's expected to improve in August. There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang in the new season. It's recommended to wait and see and maintain a positive spread strategy for the 9 - 11 contract [2] Sugar - US sugar fluctuated last week. Brazilian production data in mid - July was neutral to bearish. Production speeded up due to less rainfall in July, but the overall progress was still slow, and some institutions lowered the annual production forecast. In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. Sales were fast, inventory was down year - on - year, and import volume in June increased year - on - year but the cumulative import volume was still low. The market focus shifted to imports and next season's production estimate, and the 25/26 season's production is uncertain [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated upward. Market demand was poor, cold - storage shipment was slow, and spot prices were weak. Cold - storage remaining inventory was low, and storage merchants were eager to sell. Early - maturing apples had high prices but average quality. As of August 7, national cold - storage inventory was 512,000 tons, down 48.1% year - on - year. The market focus shifted to new - season production estimate, and there are differences in production forecasts [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, Synthetic rubber - RU, NR, and BR prices moved down. Domestic natural and synthetic rubber prices rose, while the external butadiene port price fell. Global natural rubber supply entered the high - yield period, and domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rates changed. Domestic tire operating rates declined slowly, and terminal demand was weak. Rubber inventories decreased, market sentiment improved, and the Fed was expected to cut interest rates. The strategy is to wait and see for RU and be bullish for NR and BR [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices rose. Spot prices in Shandong and other regions were stable or increased. As of August 7, 2025, the inventory at major Chinese pulp ports decreased. In July, domestic pulp imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Currently, port inventory is high year - on - year, supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak. In August, demand may be boosted. It's recommended to wait and see or try to go long at low prices [6] Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices at Taicang Port increased. Last week, the arrival volume increased, but due to rising external prices and small domestic price increases, importers faced pressure, and domestic supply may remain low. In the off - season, the daily outbound volume at the port was good. As of August 8, national port log inventory decreased. With improving supply - demand and low inventory, spot prices are expected to rebound, and futures prices are expected to rise. A bullish strategy is recommended [7]