农产品日报-20250811

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Palm oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Rapeseed meal: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Rapeseed oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Corn: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Live pigs: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/ bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, policies, trade relations, and supply - demand. Different products have different market trends and investment suggestions [2][4][5][6][7] - For soybeans, pay attention to weather and policy impacts; for bean粕, treat the market as volatile before the tariff issue is resolved; for palm oil and soybean oil, maintain the idea of buying on dips; for rapeseed products, take a neutral strategy in the short term; for corn, it may continue to be weak at the bottom; for live pigs, suggest industry hedging on rallies; for eggs, focus on spot price performance and industry capacity reduction [2][4][5][6][7] Summary by Product Soybeans and Bean粕 - Douyi prices are oscillating weakly. Northeast production areas have favorable water - heat conditions, and policy - end auctions continue. The spread between Douyi and Douer is weak, and negative factors are mostly released. For imported soybeans, pay attention to weather risks in the US [2] - The Dalian bean粕 futures fell about 2% intraday due to Trump's remarks and rebounded at the end. Brazilian bean premiums are rising, domestic fourth - quarter procurement is slow, oil mill crushing rates are stable, and bean粕 inventories are at a high level. Before the tariff issue is resolved, treat the bean粕 market as volatile [2] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Indonesia has set a B50 biodiesel development target for 2026. The MP0B report is more bullish than expected, but the absolute inventory is still large. Palm oil prices have broken through the shock range. Maintain the idea of buying on dips for soybean oil and palm oil, but be cautious about mid - term market sentiment fermentation [2] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The weather window for Canadian rapeseed is narrowing, and the change in production is small. The net long position of funds has declined again. The domestic rapeseed market shows a risk - avoiding attitude. Suggest a neutral short - term strategy for rapeseed products and pay attention to the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal [4] Corn - Dalian corn futures continue to oscillate at a low level. Cofco will conduct another imported corn auction. Without policy guidance, domestic corn may continue to be weak at the bottom under the background of falling US corn prices [5] Live Pigs - The spot and futures markets of live pigs deviated last week. Spot prices continued to fall to a new low this year. From a fundamental perspective, the supply of live pigs is expected to be high in the second half of the year. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging on rallies [6] Eggs - Last week, egg spot prices continued to decline and then stopped falling. The futures market is still trading based on the logic of high - capacity pressure. Focus on spot price performance, peak - season demand, and cold - storage egg出库, as well as industry capacity reduction [7]