如何看待近期市场结构切换？

Report Overview - Report Title: Credit Business Weekly - How to View the Recent Market Structure Switch? - Report Date: August 11, 2025 - Research Institute: Zhongtai Securities Research Institute - Analysts: Xu Chi, Zhang Wenyu 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market adjustment is a phased structural switch rather than a major - cycle peak. The market's risk - preference and corporate earnings differentiation may reach an annual high in Q3. Policy support remains strong, and funds are just flowing to different sectors. The subsequent market is likely to continue the path of the "anti -内卷" policy [5]. - The market style is shifting from traditional cyclical sectors to the technology sector. This is influenced by internal and external demand, liquidity expectations, and a series of policies and events [7]. - The overall adjustment range and duration of the index are controllable. The index callback reflects market structural switching, and the logic of sector allocation remains unchanged. The report maintains the allocation recommendation for technology sectors (AI, robotics), the Hang Seng Technology Index, Hong Kong dividend sectors (utilities, social services), and the brokerage sector [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review Market Performance - Last week, most major market indices rose, with the CSI 1000 having a relatively large increase of 2.51%. Among the large - scale industry indices, the materials and industrial indices performed well, with weekly increases of 3.53% and 3.23% respectively, while the healthcare and daily consumption indices were relatively weak, with weekly changes of - 0.72% and 1.09% respectively [9][11][19]. - Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 26 industries rose. The industries with large increases were national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and machinery and equipment, with increases of 5.93%, 5.78%, and 5.37% respectively. The industries with large declines were pharmaceutical biology, computer, and commercial retail, with declines of 0.84%, 0.41%, and 0.38% respectively [10][20][22]. Trading Heat - Last week, the average daily trading volume of Wind All - A was 16964.10 billion yuan (the previous value was 18096.34 billion yuan), which was at a relatively high historical level (90.10% of the three - year historical quantile) [10][24]. Valuation Tracking - As of August 8, 2025, the Wind All - A valuation (PE_TTM) was 20.69, up 0.36 from the previous week, and was at the 83.80% quantile of the historical level (in the past 5 years). Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 26 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) were repaired [30]. Market Observation Current Market Adjustment: Peak or Structural Switch? - The current market adjustment is similar to the situation after the NDRC meeting on October 8 last year. It is a phased structural switch, not a major - cycle peak. Fundamentally, the differentiation of risk preference and corporate earnings may reach an annual high in Q3. Policy - wise, the government's support for the market remains strong, and policies are guiding institutional funds from the bond market to the stock market. From the capital perspective, funds are just flowing to different sectors, and the subsequent market is likely to continue the path of the "anti -内卷" policy [5]. Impact of the July Politburo Meeting on the Market - Internationally, although the US stock market faces short - term data tests, it does not pose a systemic risk. The US stock market's core profit drivers come from the easing of Trump's trade policy uncertainty, the "winner - takes - all" effect in the AI field, and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. - The market style is shifting from traditional cyclical sectors to technology sectors, driven by internal and external demand, liquidity expectations, and a series of policies and events, such as the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session, the Victory Day parade, and the expectation of a Sino - US summit [7]. Global Economic Calendar - Domestic economic data to be released this week include China's M2 money supply year - on - year, social financing scale, 70 - city housing price index year - on - year, unemployment rate, and new RMB loans. Key domestic events include the National Bureau of Statistics' press conference on the national economic operation. - Overseas economic data to be released include the US unadjusted CPI year - on - year, euro - zone employment number quarterly - on - quarterly, US PPI year - on - year, and US retail sales year - on - year. Key overseas events include the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow economic growth forecast [32].