黑色金属日报-20250811

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆★ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ (White stars represent a relatively balanced short-term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows mixed trends with rising thread demand and production but falling hot-rolled coil demand and production, while inventory accumulates in both. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The coke and coking coal markets are affected by "anti-involution" policies with increased short-term volatility and limited downside space. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets also follow the "anti-involution" policy expectations and face pressure near previous highs [2][3][4] By Commodity Type Steel - Thread's apparent demand and production increased, inventory continued to accumulate; hot-rolled coil's apparent demand dropped significantly, production declined, and inventory also continued to accumulate. Iron water production declined slightly but remained high. Downstream industries showed weak domestic demand, while steel exports remained relatively high. Market sentiment was supported by factors such as narrowed PPI decline and marginal relaxation of the Beijing property market [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price rose slightly, and the basis fluctuated recently. Global shipments decreased slightly this period, with a large drop in Australian shipments and increases in Brazilian and non-mainstream country shipments. Domestic arrivals decreased this period but were slightly higher than last year. Terminal demand was weak, and blast furnace iron water decreased slightly. Steel mills had high profit ratios and limited motivation for active production cuts. The market was expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - Coke prices fluctuated upward. The sixth round of price increases improved profits, and daily production increased slightly. Inventory continued to decline, and traders had good purchasing intentions. The carbon element supply was abundant, and downstream iron water remained at a high level during the off-season. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, with increased short-term volatility and limited downside space [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fluctuated upward. Market sentiment was high regarding coal overproduction inspections. Mine production decreased, the spot auction market improved, and terminal inventory remained flat. Total inventory decreased, and production-side inventory continued to decline significantly. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, with increased short-term volatility and limited downside space [6] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rose slightly. Iron water production remained above 240. Weekly production continued to increase but at a slower rate than expected, providing some support to the price. Manganese ore prices rose slightly this week, and it was expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. In July, supply exceeded demand, and on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, and pressure near previous highs should be noted [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rose slightly. Iron water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons with a marginal impact. Metal magnesium production decreased slightly, and secondary demand declined marginally. Supply increased significantly, market trading was average, and on-balance-sheet inventory increased slightly. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, and pressure near previous highs should be noted [8]