冠通期货铜周度策略展望-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro Aspects: Recent macroeconomic game has intensified, with tariff and trade frictions between the US and Japan, and the US and India escalating. Market risk aversion has increased, and changes in the number of senior Fed officials have affected the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeds 90%, and the US dollar index is under pressure to oscillate at a low level, supporting the copper price. After the Russia-Ukraine talks last Friday, the Russia-Ukraine conflict may turn for the better, leading to a stronger copper price. However, the current domestic anti-involution measures have no new drivers, and the positive impact on the copper price is limited. Attention should still be paid to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [2][4]. - Supply Aspects: The maintenance of a smelter in Indonesia has been extended until mid-August. More copper concentrates have flowed into other countries. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 18.24% and a month-on-month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$37.98 per dry ton, and the refining charge (RC) was -3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and recover. The increase in copper concentrate imports has provided smelters with abundant raw materials. Currently, copper production has not declined. Long-term contract orders are profitable, while spot orders are still at a loss. Smelters' production enthusiasm is currently acceptable. Previously maintained smelters are gradually resuming operations, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [2][4]. - Demand Aspects: Currently, it is the hot and rainy season, and the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has dampened the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing, resulting in lukewarm overall demand and a cold trading sentiment. The performance of the terminal power grid remains good, but the construction and real estate sectors still have a negative impact. Since the implementation of copper tariffs, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has not shown a significant increase, which has supported the domestic copper price to some extent [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - US Manufacturing PMI: In July, the US ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49, marking the fastest contraction rate in the past nine months, dragged down by continuous order reduction and intensified employment decline. The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, lower than the previous month and the first time it fell below the boom-bust line since 2025 [9]. - China's Economic Indicators: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, a 0.4 and 0.5 percentage point decrease from the previous month. The national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, turning from a decline to an increase, and remained flat year-on-year. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, and decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, remaining the same as the previous month [15]. 3.2 Copper Price Trends - Shanghai Copper: Last week, Shanghai copper showed an overall oscillating and strengthening trend. The highest price of the week was 78,610 yuan per ton, the lowest was 78,030 yuan per ton, the weekly amplitude was 0.74%, and the interval increase was 0.11% [18]. - LME Copper: As of August 8, the weekly change rate of LME copper was +1.13%, closing at $9,700 per ton. The LME copper spot discount weakened, and the inventory accumulation trend of the exchange's copper inventory continued. The copper resources in the market were relatively more abundant than before the implementation of tariffs, resulting in a weaker spot discount [33]. 3.3 Copper Market News - Chilean Copper Mine Accident: On August 5, news reported that Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, was facing one of the most severe safety challenges in its history. After several days of emergency rescue, rescuers found the body of the last missing miner at the El Teniente mine, and all five miners trapped in the tunnel collapse accident on Thursday had died. This accident, which caused six deaths, was the most serious mine accident in Chile in decades and prompted the company to launch a comprehensive investigation [21]. - Chifeng Gold's Project: On August 7, Chifeng Gold (600988.SH) announced that its subsidiary's Laos Saiban SND gold-copper mine project had completed the first-phase resource exploration. According to the resource estimation report issued by SRK China based on the JORC standard, as of June 30, 2025, the project (porphyry gold-copper deposit) had proven mineral resources of 131.5 million tons, with a gold equivalent grade of 0.81 grams per ton and a gold equivalent metal volume of approximately 1.069 million tons. Drilling is planned to resume after the rainy season to upgrade the resource reserves [22]. 3.4 Copper Supply - Copper Concentrate Supply: In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 18.24% and a month-on-month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%. As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 428,700 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from the previous week [38]. - Smelter Fees: As of August 8, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$37.98 per dry ton, and the refining charge (RC) was -3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and recover. With the increase in copper concentrate imports, smelters have abundant raw materials, and currently, copper production has not declined. On the morning of June 27, 2025, the mid-year negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters set the TC/RC at $0 per dry ton and 0 cents per pound. Long-term contract orders are profitable, while spot orders are still at a loss. Smelters' production enthusiasm is currently acceptable [42]. - Refined Copper Supply: In July, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 39,400 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 7.7673 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%. Previously maintained smelters are gradually resuming operations, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August. In July, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 480,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 3.113 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [46][47]. - Scrap Copper Supply: In June 2025, scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, with a relatively high year-on-year import volume, exceeding market expectations. The increase in the price difference between refined and scrap copper has led to a shortage of scrap copper supply, and more scrap copper rod enterprises have shut down their production facilities. Currently, affected by copper tariffs, there is a mismatch in the global scrap copper supply and demand, which may lead to a continued decrease in domestic scrap copper imports in the future [52]. 3.5 Copper Demand - Apparent Demand: As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a high level in the same period of history. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. China's refined copper consumption is expected to increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026. Currently, due to the hot and rainy season, the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has dampened the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing, resulting in lukewarm overall demand and a cold trading sentiment. The performance of the terminal power grid remains good. From January to June 2025, China's power grid infrastructure investment reached 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, and power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. The State Grid plans to invest more than 650 billion yuan this year, a year-on-year increase of +8% [57]. - Copper Products: In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%. The start-up rate was lower than expected, and downstream enterprises were cautious in taking delivery. Refined copper rod enterprises have reduced or stopped production, and enterprises have no intention to stockpile, keeping the inventory level low. Currently, it is the off-season, and downstream enterprises are not willing to accept high copper prices, resulting in an unexpected reduction in production by refined copper rod enterprises. The start-up rate of copper tube enterprises has shown a downward trend, with insufficient follow-up of downstream orders. With copper prices at a high level, the start-up rate has continued to decline. The production of terminal household appliances such as air conditioners is not high, and due to the 50% tariff on copper products imposed by the US, the export volume has decreased [62]. - Power Grid Engineering: From January to June, the power grid project investment reached 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, reaching the highest level in the same period in history. From January to June, the power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% year-on-year respectively. The power grid project remains a downstream rigid demand for copper, supporting the copper price [66]. - Real Estate and Infrastructure: From January to June, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4.4124 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.4%. The new construction area of houses was 303.64 million square meters, a decrease of 20.0%. Among them, the new construction area of residential houses was 222.88 million square meters, a decrease of 19.6%. The completed area of houses was 225.67 million square meters, a decrease of 14.8%. Among them, the completed area of residential houses was 162.66 million square meters, a decrease of 15.5%. The real estate market continues to be weak [71]. - Automobile and New Energy Automobile Industry: In June, automobile production and sales reached 2.794 million and 2.904 million vehicles respectively, a month-on-month increase of 5.5% and 8.1% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 11.4% and 13.8% respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.268 million and 1.329 million vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 26.4% and 26.7% respectively. The sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.8% of the total sales volume of new vehicles [76]. 3.6 Copper Inventory - Global Exchanges: After the implementation of copper tariffs, the siphon effect of US copper has ended, and the LME copper inventory has started to accumulate significantly. As of August 8, the LME copper inventory was 155,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 9.95% and a month-on-month increase of 45.48%. The inventory accumulation rate of COMEX has slowed down, and the COMEX copper inventory was 264,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.72% and a month-on-month increase of 18.23% [83]. - Domestic Inventory: On August 7, the total spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 80,900 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the 31st, and a decrease of 300 tons from the 4th. The change in the bonded area inventory was limited. During the week, the export goods from smelters did not enter the warehouse, and the imported goods arriving at the port were directly cleared and imported into the domestic market, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory. Since the implementation of copper tariffs, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has not shown a significant increase, which has supported the domestic copper price to some extent [87].