Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Weekly Report - August 11, 2025 [1] - Author: Shen Wen [2] - Contact Information: shenwen_qh@ccnew.com, 0371 - 58620081 [2] 1. Report Core Views 1.1 Soda Ash - Supply: The plant operating rate was 85.41% (up 5.15% week - on - week), with the ammonia - soda method at 89.20% (up 2.80% week - on - week) and the combined soda method at 73.92% (up 6.06% week - on - week). The weekly output was 74.47 tons (up 4.49 tons week - on - week), with light soda ash output at 32.12 tons (up 2.01 tons) and heavy soda ash output at 42.35 tons (up 2.48 tons) [5]. - Demand: The apparent demand for soda ash was 67.54 tons (down 9.32 tons), with light soda ash at 29.66 tons (down 5.37 tons) and heavy soda ash at 37.88 tons (down 3.95 tons) [5]. - Inventory: Soda ash enterprise inventory was 186.51 tons (up 1.33 tons), light soda ash inventory was 71.76 tons (up 0.86 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 114.75 tons (up 0.47 tons) [5]. - Core Logic: The spot price of soda ash was weak this week. Recently, the overhauled plants of soda ash factories have resumed production one after another, and the supply of soda ash has risen to a year - on - year high level again. On the demand side, the apparent demand for soda ash decreased significantly week - on - week. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained stable. The expected reduction in the supply of photovoltaic glass will slow down. In general, soda ash still faces high supply and large warehouse receipt pressure, but the rise in raw material prices such as coal has also raised the cost bottom support. In the short term, the futures price of soda ash may continue to fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, under the pattern of new capacity release, the pressure of loose supply and demand for soda ash still exists. Opportunities to short at high levels after the weakening of macro - disturbances can be considered [5]. 1.2 Glass - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass was 15.96 tons, unchanged from July 31. There were a total of 296 glass production lines in China, with 223 in production and 73 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 8.65 tons, unchanged week - on - week and down 20.55% year - on - year [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight cases, up 2.348 million weight cases week - on - week, or 3.95% week - on - week and down 8.18% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.4 days, 0.9 days more than the previous period [6]. - Demand: As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days, up 2.7% week - on - week and down 1.55% year - on - year [6]. - Core Logic: The spot market price of float glass was weak this week, with the national weekly average price at 1,221 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton week - on - week. Recently, the supply of float glass has remained stable. Under the pressure of the release of intermediate goods, the inventory of glass enterprises has increased week - on - week. On the demand side, the operating rate of LOW - E glass sample enterprises was 76.8%, which increased slightly week - on - week but was still at a relatively low level year - on - year. The enthusiasm of downstream buyers was weak. In general, the current glass still faces weak demand and intermediate shipment pressure. It is expected that the futures price of glass may continue to fluctuate weakly. The impact of macro - policies should be followed up [6]. 2. Variety Details Decomposition 2.1 Market Review - Spot Price - Soda Ash: The domestic spot price of soda ash fluctuated downward. As of August 7, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China was 1,300 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton between light and heavy soda ash; in North China, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1,350 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 50 yuan/ton between light and heavy soda ash [11]. - Futures Price: The main contract price of soda ash fluctuated weakly. As of August 7, 2025, the basis of soda ash in the Shahe area was - 100 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week); the futures price of glass fell sharply, and the basis of glass in the Shahe area was 80 yuan/ton (up 109 yuan/ton week - on - week) [14]. 2.1 Market Review - Spread - As of August 7, 2025, the spread between the September and January contracts of soda ash was - 90 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week); the spread between the September and January contracts of glass was - 144 yuan/ton (down 37 yuan/ton week - on - week); the arbitrage spread between glass and soda ash was 281 yuan/ton (up 151 yuan/ton week - on - week) [20]. 2.2 Fundamentals - Supply - Soda Ash: The weekly output was 74.47 tons (up 4.49 tons week - on - week), with light soda ash output at 32.12 tons (up 2.01 tons) and heavy soda ash output at 42.35 tons (up 2.48 tons). The overhauled plants of soda ash factories have resumed production one after another, and it is expected that the supply of soda ash will increase [26]. - Glass: There were a total of 296 glass production lines in China, with 223 in production and 73 cold - repaired and shut down. The national daily output of float glass was 15.96 tons, unchanged from July 31. This week, the national float glass output was 1.117 million tons, up 0.16% week - on - week and down 5.94% year - on - year. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 8.65 tons, unchanged week - on - week and down 20.55% year - on - year [46]. 2.3 Fundamentals - Inventory - Soda Ash: As of August 7, 2025, soda ash enterprise inventory was 186.51 tons (up 1.33 tons), light soda ash inventory was 71.76 tons (up 0.86 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 114.75 tons (up 0.47 tons) [39]. - Glass: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight cases, up 2.348 million weight cases week - on - week, or 3.95% week - on - week and down 8.18% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.4 days, 0.9 days more than the previous period. As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days, up 2.7% week - on - week and down 1.55% year - on - year [50]. 2.3 Fundamentals - Profit - Soda Ash: As of August 7, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda method in China was 56 yuan/ton, down 0.9 yuan/ton week - on - week; the theoretical profit (double tons) of soda ash produced by the combined soda method in China was 68 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton week - on - week [53].
纯碱玻璃周报-20250811
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-11 15:09