Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea spot market price showed a weak trend. The current daily production will fluctuate around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. In August, many previously shut - down plants are expected to resume production, and some new capacity plants are expected to be put into operation, so the supply pressure is expected to increase. On the demand side, the production start - up of autumn compound fertilizers continues to increase, but the downstream dealers' enthusiasm for picking up goods is insufficient, and the finished product inventory still faces great pressure. In the short term, the high inventory of autumn fertilizers suppresses the production enthusiasm of enterprises, and the support for the procurement demand of urea raw materials is weak. The futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and the market should pay attention to the support level performance around 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton on the disk [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Week - ly Viewpoint Summary - Supply: In August, many plants are expected to resume production, and the supply is expected to increase [4]. - Demand: The start - up of autumn fertilizers has increased, but the finished product inventory pressure is still large [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis [4]. - Cost and Profit: The upward trend of coal prices has slowed down, and the urea profit decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis [4]. - Basis and Spread: The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the change in the 09 basis was limited [4]. - Overall Logic: The domestic urea spot market price was weak this week. Supply pressure is expected to increase, while demand is constrained by high inventory. The futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level around 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton [4]. 02 Variety Details Decomposition - 2.1 This week, the domestic urea market price changed from strong to weak: There are price trend charts of urea in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Northeast China from 2021 - 2025 [6][7][8]. - 2.2 On August 4, the lowest CFR price of the Indian tender on the east coast was $532/ton: There are charts showing international urea prices, price differences between FOB China and other regions, and export price differences from 2019 - 2025 [10][11][12]. - 2.3 Supply - In August, many plants are expected to resume production, and the supply is expected to increase: The weekly urea production was 1.3548 million tons (+0.01%), including 1.0451 million tons of coal - based urea production (-1.62%) and 309,700 tons of gas - based urea production (+5.92%), with an average daily production of 194,000 tons. There are also plans for plant overhauls and historical data on overhaul losses [16][20][23]. - 2.4 Inventory - The inventory of upstream urea enterprises decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis: The urea enterprise inventory was 887,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,700 tons. The port inventory was 483,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons), and some goods were shipped out of the port. The mainstream advance receipt days of urea enterprises were 6.53 days (+6.7% week - on - week), and the number of days of orders to be delivered by enterprises increased slightly [27][31]. - 2.5 Demand - The start - up of autumn fertilizers has increased, but the finished product inventory pressure is still large: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 41.50% (+2.82%), and the finished product inventory was 800,400 tons (a week - on - week increase of 23,200 tons). The operating rate of melamine was 63.50% (-1.70%), with a slight decline [33][34]. - 2.6 Raw Material - The upward trend of coal prices has slowed down: There are price trend charts of various types of coal such as Yulin thermal coal, Yangquan bituminous coal fines, etc. from 2021 - 2025 [36][37]. - 2.7 Profit - The urea profit decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis: There are charts showing the production gross profit of urea fixed - bed devices from 2021 - 2025 [42][43]. - 2.8 Spread Analysis - The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the change in the 09 basis was limited: There are charts showing the 9 - 1 spread and 09 basis from 2021 - 2025 [45][46][47]. - 2.10 Urea - related Product Spreads: There are charts showing the price differences between liquid ammonia and urea, urea and ammonium chloride, etc. from 2021 - 2025 [53][52].
尿素周报：下游提货积极性不足，秋季肥库存压力较大-20250811
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-11 15:07