研究所晨会观点精萃-20250812

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - Overseas, the US will release inflation data, which may influence the Fed's decision on a September rate cut. The US dollar is strengthening, and global risk appetite has cooled. Domestically, China's July manufacturing PMI decreased, economic growth slowed, the trade deficit declined, and net exports' contribution to the economy weakened. However, China has introduced childcare subsidies, and the Sino - US tariff truce has been extended, boosting domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; different commodity sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious operations recommended [2]. Group 3: Summary by Categories 1. Macro - finance - Macroeconomic situation: Overseas, the focus is on US inflation data and Fed rate - cut expectations. Domestically, economic growth has slowed, but policies are expected to boost consumption, and tariff risks have decreased. Stock index: Short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Treasury bonds: Cautious observation is advised. Commodities: Different sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious operations recommended [2]. 2. Stock Index - The domestic stock market has risen, driven by sectors such as energy metals, batteries, and components. The economic growth has slowed, but policies and trade negotiations are expected to boost the market. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. 3. Precious Metals - Gold prices declined on Monday. The market is concerned about US inflation data and Fed rate - cut expectations. The long - term view on gold is bullish, and long - term positions can be considered if it retraces to support levels [5]. 4. Black Metals - Steel: Prices rebounded on Monday. The market is still dominated by macro logic, and prices are expected to be oscillate strongly in the short term. Demand is weak, and inventory is rising, but supply is also high due to high profits [6]. - Iron Ore: Prices strengthened on Monday but were weaker than other black metals. Demand may weaken further due to production restrictions, and supply has decreased. Short - term price is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: Spot prices were flat on Monday. Demand is fair, and production in some regions is expected to increase. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range [7][8]. 5. Chemicals - Soda Ash: The main contract oscillated on Monday. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high, suppressing prices. The upside is limited [9]. - Glass: The main contract oscillated on Monday. Supply may decrease due to policies, demand has slightly improved, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. 6. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The Fed's dovish stance is strengthening, and risk appetite has recovered. However, copper inventory is high, and terminal demand may weaken [11]. - Aluminum: The closing price rose slightly on Monday. Fundamentals have weakened, and short - term attention should be paid to the 20 - day moving average support [11]. - Aluminum Alloy: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside is limited [11]. - Tin: Supply has slightly increased, and terminal demand is weak. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate, and the upside is restricted [12]. - Lithium Carbonate: Multiple contracts hit the daily limit on Monday. Supply has decreased, and the market is bullish in the short term. Attention should be paid to the mine - type change of remaining mines [13]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract rose on Monday. It is expected to oscillate strongly due to cost and sentiment factors [14]. - Polysilicon: The main contract rose on Monday. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with support from spot prices and expectations [15]. 7. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The market is waiting for details of the US - Russia summit. Oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as Russian oil supply is not expected to be interrupted [16]. - Asphalt: Oil prices are low and stable, and asphalt prices have slightly recovered. The demand is weak, and the inventory is difficult to reduce, so it is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - PX: Prices have declined slightly. The supply is tight, and it is expected to oscillate while waiting for PTA device changes [16]. - PTA: The basis has recovered slightly, and supply and demand are expected to balance in August. It is expected to oscillate within a range [17]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory has increased, and supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in the short term. It is expected to oscillate, with limited upside [17]. - Short - fiber: Prices have declined. Terminal orders are average, and inventory has increased slightly. Medium - term short positions can be considered [18]. - Methanol: Supply has decreased, and demand varies by region. It is expected to oscillate, with limited spread movement [18]. - PP: Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak [18]. - LLDPE: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term weak [18]. 8. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: Trump's call for China to increase soybean purchases has led to a price increase. The crop condition is good, but new sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report [19]. - Soybean Meal/Canola Meal: Domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are increasing, and spot prices are weak. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate around 2900 yuan/ton [20]. - Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil: Soybean oil inventory is increasing, but the supply is expected to tighten in the fourth quarter. The soybean - palm oil spread is inverted, and long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage opportunities can be considered. Rapeseed oil inventory has slightly decreased [20]. - Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil production and inventory have increased, and exports are weak. Domestic import profits are inverted, and inventory is increasing [20]. - Corn: Supply is expected to be sufficient in August, and spot prices are stable. The basis is favorable, which stabilizes the futures price [21][22]. - Pigs: After price declines, farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Supply pressure may ease after the Beginning of Autumn, and pig prices may stabilize [22].