中美再次暂停实施相互24%关税90天

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers a wide range of sectors including finance, commodities, and energy - chemical. In the financial sector, factors such as tariff policies, central bank operations, and potential leadership changes in the Fed impact market trends. In the commodity sector, supply - demand relationships are influenced by natural conditions, production disruptions, and policy regulations. In the energy - chemical sector, factors like inventory levels, production capacity, and market demand determine the price trends of various products [13][27][66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump stated that gold will not be subject to additional tariffs. After this confirmation, gold prices dropped significantly, especially COMEX gold futures. The spread between New York gold and London gold has returned to normal, and Shanghai gold followed London gold in the correction. Short - term gold prices lack the momentum to break through, and there is a risk of a pullback [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the implementation regulations of the VAT law. The A - share market is highly bullish, with all positive factors fully reflected. It is recommended to have a balanced allocation [15][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - There are new candidates for the successor to Powell. Trump downplayed the expectations for the US - Russia summit, so the meeting may not yield effective results, and the US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [18][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Nvidia and AMD are expected to pay 15% of their sales of AI chips to China to the US government in exchange for export licenses. The market is concerned about the upcoming CPI data, and there is a risk of a pullback in the US stock market [23][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 112 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan on the day. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and long - position holders should pay attention to the rhythm [25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills decreased. Brazil's soybean exports in the first week of August increased compared to the same period last year. The excellent - good rate of US soybeans decreased by 1% to 68%. It is necessary to closely monitor the development of China - US relations and the USDA's August supply - demand report [27][29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil inventory in July increased by 4.02% month - on - month, which was lower than market expectations. Indonesia plans to implement B50 in 2026 and may increase the DMO, which is positive for international palm oil prices. It is recommended to buy on dips for palm oil futures [30][34]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coke price in the Linfen market is rising. Some coal mines issued a notice on the trial implementation of the 276 - working - day production plan, which affects market sentiment. Short - term futures prices have limited upside potential, and it is necessary to pay attention to subsequent policies and demand changes [35][36]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Cuba's sugar production in the 2024/25 season dropped below 150,000 tons. The US tariff on South African imports has a serious impact on South African sugarcane growers. India's ethanol production's dependence on sugarcane has decreased, and the net sugar production in the 25/26 season may increase significantly [37][40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is weak. Starch enterprises'开机 rate increased last week, and inventory accumulated again. It is recommended to avoid trading the 09 contract and hold short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts while monitoring weather conditions [41][45]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In July, automobile sales increased by 14.7% year - on - year. Steel prices are rising, and the market expects supply to decrease due to environmental protection restrictions. The short - term market is expected to be strong, but there are risks [42][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Precipitation in North China and the Huang - Huai region has alleviated the drought, but there is a risk of waterlogging. The 09 contract of corn futures has limited upside and downside potential, and it is recommended to avoid it. Hold short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts and pay attention to weather changes [44][45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina production capacity is in a state of over - supply. Newly - added production capacity is being gradually released, and the market is moving towards a more relaxed supply situation. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The damage to Chile's El Teniente copper mine is more severe than initially expected. Lundin Mining's copper production in the second quarter increased by 11.8% year - on - year. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [47][50]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - GCL Integrated signed a 450 - million - yuan polysilicon purchase contract. Polysilicon inventory is accumulating, and production is expected to increase in August. Short - term polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to have a bullish view on pullbacks and consider selling out - of - the - money put options [51][53]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The DMC market shows a co - existence of stable prices and price concessions. The supply of industrial silicon may increase in August, but due to the increase in demand from polysilicon, the market may still be in a state of de - stocking. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term [54][55]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 8, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $31.29 per ton. The social inventory of lead ingots continued to decline. It is recommended to hold long positions established at low levels and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage opportunity [56][57]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased significantly, and the supply is expected to be high in August. The short - term trading of Shanghai zinc is difficult, and it is recommended to manage positions well for single - side trading and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [58][60]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - CATL's Yichun project has suspended mining after the expiration of the mining license on August 9. The short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain strong, and it is recommended to look for buying opportunities on pullbacks and pay attention to the inter - month positive arbitrage opportunity [61][62]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased by 936 tons on August 11. Short - term nickel prices are unlikely to decline significantly. In the medium term, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [63][65]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle East frozen cargo decreased. International freight rates have risen significantly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the changes in spot prices and factory warehouse behavior and consider the far - month positive arbitrage opportunity [66][68]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iraq raised the official selling price of Basra medium - grade crude oil to Asia in September. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt in refineries increased significantly, and the demand is still weak. It is recommended to wait and see [71][72]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chip factories changed little. The current industry's production cut extension is showing results, and the processing fee has slightly recovered. The absolute price of bottle chips mainly follows the fluctuation of polyester raw materials [73][74]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market has different production - sales ratios in different regions. The short - term supply - demand pattern of urea is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to the release rhythm of autumn fertilizer demand [75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price rose on August 11. The unilateral price of PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports decreased. The production of styrene is expected to remain high in the short term, and the start - up rate may decline in September. The current price of styrene is expected to fluctuate [79][80]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA increased, and the spot basis strengthened. The demand side is still weak, and the supply side may see a slight recovery in processing fees. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [81][83]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The supply of caustic soda has increased, and the demand is average. The short - term price is expected to remain stable, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [84][86]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot market of imported wood pulp showed a strengthening trend. The short - term pulp futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [87]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market was slightly adjusted. The current fundamentals of PVC are still weak, but macro - level positives and rising coal prices support the futures price. It is expected to fluctuate [88]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased slightly. The medium - term strategy for soda ash is to short on rallies, but there may be supply - side policy disturbances [89][90]. 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market changed slightly. The glass futures price was slightly stronger due to market sentiment. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on arbitrage strategies [91].