Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper: With expectations of a Fed rate cut, overseas risk appetite is decent, and the domestic equity market is strong. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight in the short - term, but the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs creates upward pressure. Short - term copper prices may be volatile and tend to rise. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper today is 78400 - 79600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M it is 9650 - 9850 dollars/ton [2] - Aluminum: The domestic commodity atmosphere is supported by the "anti - involution" policy, and there is an expectation of a Fed rate cut overseas. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is relatively low, and external demand is resilient, but downstream consumption is weak and trade situations are changeable. Short - term aluminum prices may be volatile. The reference range for the domestic main contract today is 20500 - 20700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M it is 2560 - 2610 dollars/ton [4] - Lead: In August, the port inventory of lead ore has increased, and the operating rate of primary lead has recovered. The raw material inventory of secondary lead remains low, and its operating rate is slowly rising. The social inventory of lead ingots has slightly decreased, and supply has slightly narrowed. However, downstream consumption pressure is high, and the operating rate of battery enterprises has dropped rapidly. It is expected that lead prices will show a weak and volatile trend [5] - Zinc: The zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, TC continues to rise, and the zinc ore supply remains loose. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to increase, smelters have high production plans, and downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement, so the domestic zinc ingot market remains in surplus. Although the mid - term industrial surplus situation remains unchanged, the short - term decline of zinc prices is difficult due to the support of low LME warehouse receipts [7] - Tin: The supply of tin is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter, but the demand is in the off - season, and the traditional consumption areas are weak. Although AI has increased some demand, it has limited impact on overall demand. The short - term supply and demand are both weak, and the room for further price increase is limited [8] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore needs time to recover, and the surplus pressure of nickel iron still exists. The short - term macro - atmosphere is positive, and the price of stainless steel has risen steadily, driving the nickel price to rise slightly, but the improvement in downstream demand is limited, and there is still pressure for price correction [10] - Lithium Carbonate: After the suspension of the lithium mine in Ningde Times, the market expects a shortage of domestic lithium carbonate supply. The contract limit - up on Monday, and the bullish sentiment is expected to continue on Tuesday. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can seize entry points according to their operations [12] - Alumina: The implementation of supply - side contraction policies needs to be observed, and the over - capacity pattern of alumina may be difficult to change. The short - term sentiment for long positions in commodities has declined, and the shortage of circulating spot goods is gradually easing. It is recommended to short at high prices according to market sentiment. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [15] - Stainless Steel: With the start of the off - peak to peak season transition, some specifications are in short supply, and the macro - atmosphere is positive. The spot and futures prices of stainless steel in August may be volatile and tend to rise [17] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is still in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although the cost side provides strong support, the upward space for prices is relatively limited due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed down 0.42% to 9726 dollars/ton, and the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 78810 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 150 to 155700 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 7.7%. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory slightly decreased, bonded area inventory slightly increased, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 0.2 to 2.3 million tons [2] - Market: The spot in Shanghai has a premium of 150 yuan/ton over the futures, and the supply is tight. In Guangdong, the inventory increased, and the spot discount to the futures narrowed to 20 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import had a loss of about 100 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference expanded to 1070 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed down 1.11% to 2586 dollars/ton, and the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20610 yuan/ton [4] - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas increased by 2.3 million tons to 58.7 million tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased by 0.45 million tons to 14.7 million tons. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 47.6 million tons [4] - Market: The spot in East China had a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the futures, and the trading was average. The domestic copper spot import had a loss of about 100 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [4] Lead - Price: The Shanghai lead index closed up 0.23% to 16885 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 11.5 to 2010 dollars/ton [5] - Inventory: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 5.87 million tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.43 million tons [5] - Market: The refined - scrap lead price difference was - 25 yuan/ton, and the import loss of lead ingots was - 769.7 yuan/ton [5] Zinc - Price: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.37% to 22598 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 23.5 to 2840 dollars/ton [7] - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continued to increase to 11.92 million tons, and the LME zinc registered warrants continued to decline [7] - Market: The zinc ore supply is loose, the domestic zinc ingot market is in surplus, and the LME market has structural disturbances [7] Tin - Supply: The mining in Myanmar's Wa State is expected to resume in the fourth quarter, and the supply of tin ore in Yunnan has improved, with the operating rate rising to 59.64% [8] - Demand: The downstream is in the off - season, traditional consumption areas are weak, and although AI has increased some demand, it has limited impact on overall demand [8] - Inventory: As of August 8, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots decreased by 383 tons to 10278 tons [8] Nickel - Ore: The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is recovering slowly, and the short - term premium remains at 24 - 25 dollars/wet ton [10] - Iron: The sentiment in the nickel - iron market has improved, but the surplus pressure still exists [10] - Price: Nickel prices fluctuated upward on Monday [10] Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index rose 11.46% to 77832 yuan, and the LC2511 contract closed up 5.25% to 81000 yuan [12] - Market: After the suspension of the lithium mine in Ningde Times, the market expects a shortage of supply, and the contract limit - up on Monday [12] Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 0.63% to 3202 yuan/ton [15] - Inventory: The futures warrants increased by 0.42 million tons to 3.04 million tons [15] - Market: The import window is closed, and it is recommended to short at high prices [15] Stainless Steel - Price: The main contract of stainless steel closed at 13225 yuan/ton, up 1.85% [17] - Inventory: The social inventory decreased to 110.63 million tons, and the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 2.82% [17] - Market: With the start of the off - peak to peak season transition, some specifications are in short supply, and prices may rise [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract closed up 0.12% to 20135 yuan/ton [19] - Inventory: The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased to 3.13 million tons [19] - Market: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand, and the upward price space is limited [19]
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250812
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-12 01:00