五矿期货能源化工日报-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [3]. - For methanol, the valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see or short it within the sector when the price is high [5]. - For urea, although the current domestic demand is weak, the overall valuation is low, and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to go long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [7]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is recommended for the short - term high - rising rubber price, with quick in - and - out operations. One can also consider a band - trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. - For PVC, the supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. The fundamentals are poor, and it is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. The price may decline significantly after the anti - involution sentiment fades [11]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the short term. After the high - level port inventory is reduced, the styrene price may oscillate upwards following the cost side [13][14]. - For polyethylene, the short - term price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side. It is recommended to hold short positions [16]. - For polypropylene, the cost side will likely dominate the market, and the price is expected to follow the oil price and oscillate upwards [17]. - For PX, the load remains high, and it is expected to continue de - stocking. The valuation has support at the bottom but limited upside in the short term. One can consider going long following the oil price when the peak season arrives [19][20]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue building up inventory, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. One can consider going long following PX when the downstream performance improves in the peak season [21]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals will turn from strong to weak, and the short - term valuation may decline [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Quotes: WTI crude oil futures rose $0.65, or 1.03%, to $64; Brent crude oil futures rose $0.39, or 0.59%, to $66.71; INE crude oil futures fell 0.40 yuan, or 0.08%, to 489.4 yuan [1]. - Data: China's weekly crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.67%; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.10 million barrels to 91.96 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.21%; diesel commercial inventory increased by 2.77 million barrels to 105.56 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.70%; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.87 million barrels to 197.51 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.00% [2]. Methanol - Market Quotes: On August 11, the 09 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 2389 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 6 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 15 [5]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic production has declined again, but corporate profits remain high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventory is building up faster, while inland corporate inventory is decreasing. The valuation is high, and downstream demand is weak [5]. Urea - Market Quotes: On August 11, the 09 contract fell 6 yuan/ton to 1722 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [7]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic production continues to decline, and corporate profits are at a low level but expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively abundant, and domestic agricultural demand is ending. Future demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports [7]. Rubber - Market Quotes: NR and RU oscillated and rebounded [9]. - Supply and Demand: Bulls expect price increases due to seasonal factors, demand expectations, and potential production cuts, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal low demand, and less - than - expected production cuts [9]. - Industry Conditions: As of August 7, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week but up 8.72 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from the previous week and 4.21 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory of semi - steel tire factories is under pressure [10]. PVC - Market Quotes: The PVC09 contract rose 17 yuan to 5010 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4890 yuan/ton, the basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 148 yuan/ton [11]. - Supply and Demand: The overall operating rate was 79.5%, up 2.6% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate was 42.9%, up 0.8% week - on - week. Factory inventory was 33.7 million tons (- 0.8), and social inventory was 77.7 million tons (+ 5.4). The supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high [11]. Styrene - Market Quotes: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [13]. - Supply and Demand: The macro - market sentiment is positive, and the cost side provides support. The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The port inventory is decreasing significantly, and the demand in the off - season is weak [13][14]. Polyethylene - Market Quotes: The futures price rose [16]. - Supply and Demand: The market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The inventory of traders is at a high level, and the demand is in the off - season. There is a large capacity - release pressure in August [16]. Polypropylene - Market Quotes: The futures price rose [17]. - Supply and Demand: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is in the off - season, and there is limited capacity - release in August. The cost side is expected to dominate the market [17]. PX - Market Quotes: The PX09 contract rose 52 yuan to 6778 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 4 dollars to 835 dollars [19]. - Supply and Demand: The load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. The import volume from South Korea decreased. The inventory decreased in June, and the valuation cost decreased [19][20]. PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA09 contract rose 22 yuan to 4706 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 30 yuan to 4700 yuan [21]. - Supply and Demand: The load increased, and some plants had load adjustments. The downstream load increased slightly, and terminal load was stable or decreased. The inventory increased in early August, and the processing fee had different trends [21]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The EG09 contract rose 30 yuan to 4414 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 19 yuan to 4484 yuan [22]. - Supply and Demand: The overall load decreased slightly, with different trends in synthetic gas and ethylene - based production. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. The downstream load increased slightly, and terminal load was stable or decreased. The port inventory increased, and the valuation and cost had different trends [22].