五矿期货农产品早报-20250812

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean and meal market is mixed with both long and short factors. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward oscillation due to a single supply source. The direction of Sino - US trade relations and new variables on the supply side need to be monitored [3]. - The oil market is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy draft, low inventory in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the upside space is restricted by multiple factors, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures may continue to decline in the future, considering the increasing import supply, high import profit, and the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season [12]. - The cotton market is under short - term bearish pressure due to the weak downstream consumption, low operating rate, and the failure of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement to be finalized [15]. - The egg market may experience short - term fluctuations, but in the medium - term, opportunities for short - selling after a rebound should be focused on due to the large supply scale [17]. - For the pig market, medium and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spread opportunities for far - month contracts [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meals - Important Information: Due to Trump's call for China to buy soybeans, US soybeans rose while domestic soybean meal declined. The domestic soybean meal spot basis was stable on Monday. The soybean crushing volume is expected to increase this week, with a significant increase in soybean inventory and a slight decrease in soybean meal inventory last week. The US soybean is undervalued and in a state of oversupply, and the domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly report on Tuesday evening [3]. - Trading Strategy: Against the background of global protein raw material supply surplus, the upward momentum of soybean import cost is insufficient. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and it is expected that the spot end may start to destock in September. It is recommended to go long at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 09 contracts [5]. Oils - Important Information: From August 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared with the same period last month. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026, but it may be difficult to start in January. Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 7.09% month - on - month, and the inventory increased by 4.02% [7]. - Trading Strategy: The oil market is supported by multiple factors, but the upside space is restricted. The palm oil market may maintain stable inventory in the 7 - 9 months and has a rising expectation in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy, but it should be viewed as fluctuating [9]. Sugar - Important Information: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi and Yunnan remained unchanged, and the mainstream quotes of processing sugar factories varied. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased slightly. In July, Brazil's sugar exports to China decreased [11]. - Trading Strategy: With the continuous increase in import supply in the second half of the year, the sales space of domestic sugar is squeezed. The futures price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - Important Information: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton decreased slightly. The operating rates of spinning and weaving factories declined, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased [14]. - Trading Strategy: The Sino - US economic and trade agreement has not been finalized, and the downstream consumption is weak. The cotton market is short - term bearish [15]. Eggs - Important Information: The national egg prices were mostly stable, with a few areas rising slightly. The supply was generally sufficient, and the downstream digestion speed was average [16]. - Trading Strategy: The supply of eggs is large, and the egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected. The short - term market may fluctuate, and medium - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [17]. Pigs - Important Information: The domestic pig prices showed a mixed trend, with some areas rising, some falling, and some remaining stable. The market supply and demand are in a game, and the pig prices may be mainly stable [19]. - Trading Strategy: The spot price is weak while the futures price is strong. Medium and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spread opportunities for far - month contracts [20].