Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The suspension of mining at Ningde Times' Jianxiawo mining area may shift the industry's supply - demand balance from tight equilibrium to shortage, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong, but it's unlikely to reverse the lithium price trend. The market should be treated with a bullish and volatile view [3][4]. - Beijing's real - estate new policies, lithium mine shutdowns, and strong economic data are all positive for A - shares, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [6]. - The weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will have a short - term small - range platform shock [10]. - The improvement of steel mill profitability maintains high pig iron production, and the overall fundamentals of iron ore are strongly supported. Technically, it rebounds upwards, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [13][14]. - The supply - demand situation of glass has slightly improved, and the main driver is the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [17][18]. - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - On August 11, the suspension of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo mining area made various market rumors self - defeating. The lithium carbonate futures opened at the daily limit. The market's focus is on Yichun lithium mines. Before the official announcement, the mine had already stopped production and had no short - term resumption plan [3]. - The monthly lithium carbonate supply of the Jianxiawo mining area and its supporting smelter is about 10,000 tons, accounting for about 12.5% of the domestic total. The suspension is related to the implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law in 2025, which has increased concerns about the supply side [4]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - Beijing's real - estate new policies, lithium mine shutdowns, and strong economic data are positive for A - shares, and the short - term trend is to fluctuate upwards [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it will have a short - term small - range platform shock [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The improvement of steel mill profitability maintains high pig iron production, and the overall fundamentals are strongly supported. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black - industry chain shows a resonance upward trend. Technically, it rebounds upwards, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [13][14]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driver is the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [17][18]. Technical Analysis - Alumina - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [21].
金信期货日刊-20250812
Jin Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-12 01:08