Macro Strategy - The report anticipates a decline in loan demand for July and stable growth in social financing [1] - The geopolitical situation and rising interest rate expectations have boosted market sentiment, leading to an increase in US stock prices [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 6.7 basis points to 4.283% due to weak auction results reflecting soft market demand [1] Fixed Income Analysis - The report highlights the investment value of non-ETF component bonds in the Sci-Tech bond market, suggesting a shift towards these bonds due to their higher yield and credit spread compared to ETF components [2] - It notes that 14.79% of the non-ETF component bonds have a credit spread exceeding 40 basis points, indicating potential for yield compression [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to have a longer-lasting impact compared to previous supply-side reforms, with a focus on high-quality development rather than large-scale demand-side stimulus [3][4] Company-Specific Insights - Guodian Measurement (002967) is recommended for its AI chip localization and high-end PCB expansion, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 4.0/4.5/5.2 billion [9] - Aisheng Co., Ltd. (600732) has shown a significant increase in shipments and profitability, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 3.8/15.6/24.9 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 107%/307%/60% [10] - Yanjing Beer (000729) continues to perform well with a focus on its U8 product line, with profit forecasts adjusted to 16.03/19.26/22.74 billion for 2025-2027 [11] - Gole Technology (002241) is expanding its AR capabilities through investment in Micro-LED technology, with profit forecasts adjusted to 34/44 billion for 2025-2026 [13] - Pop Mart (09992.HK) is expected to see rapid revenue growth driven by its IP strategy, with profit forecasts raised to 100.3/144.9/182.9 billion for 2025-2027 [14]
东吴证券晨会纪要-20250812
Soochow Securities·2025-08-12 01:22