铜周报：市场情绪好转，铜价回归震荡-20250812

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved due to factors such as strong July auto and new - energy vehicle sales in China, possible 3 interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, and the confirmation of the meeting time between US and Russian presidents. However, the central bank's significant net currency withdrawal and the month - on - month decline in auto production and sales in July also impact the market. Overall, copper prices are in a volatile state [1]. - Technically, the short - term may be volatile, and the medium - term fundamentals are not good. There is an oversupply of copper in the US and weak spot demand during the off - season in China [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - Most non - ferrous metals rose due to improved market sentiment. Shanghai copper, international copper, and domestic spot copper rose, while London copper fell. The closing price of Shanghai copper was 79,020, and the spot price was 79,190, with a spot premium of 170 points. The spot basis premium rose slightly to 150 points, but spot trading was poor. LME spot discount widened to - 70 dollars, indicating weak foreign spot demand [1]. - The inventory of US copper and London copper increased significantly this week, and the inventory of Shanghai copper increased slightly, showing insufficient spot demand. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium decreased slightly to 43.5 dollars, indicating weak domestic spot demand. The ratio of London copper to Shanghai copper remained at 8.09, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper rose to 306 points, with the foreign exchange ratio higher than the domestic one [1]. Technical Analysis - London copper fluctuated slightly downward, trading around 9,755 dollars. Shanghai copper rose sharply, closing at 79,020, with an improved technical form. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both increased, showing strong market sentiment [2]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium (Yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (Dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - London Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Aug 5 | 7.1889 | 250 | 45.5 | - 53 | 8.09 | | Aug 6 | 7.1850 | 180 | 45.5 | - 67 | 8.15 | | Aug 7 | 7.1810 | 180 | 45.5 | - 63 | 8.10 | | Aug 8 | 7.1894 | 210 | 45.5 | - 66 | 8.09 | | Aug 11 | 7.1862 | 170 | 43.5 | - 70 | 8.09 | [3]