铅锌日评：区间整理-20250812

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing, with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. Short - term lead prices are expected to trade in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro factors such as the "anti - involution" sentiment in China and the US non - farm payroll data, along with the supply - side increase in both zinc ore and ingots and weak demand in the off - season, result in inventory accumulation. However, the continuous decline in overseas LME zinc inventory provides some support. Short - term zinc prices are also expected to trade in a range [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - Price and Market Data: SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,725 yuan/ton with 0.00% change; the futures主力合约 closed at 16,885 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at 1,997.50 dollars/ton, down 0.30%. The trading volume of the futures active contract increased by 14.88% to 35,623 hands, and the open interest decreased by 8.00% to 54,395 hands [1]. - Industry News: On August 11, the annual 300 - thousand - kVAh lead - acid battery project of Guangxi Feili New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. was officially launched. Since January 2025, the Guizhou Feili New Energy lead - battery production base project, fully funded by the same company, has been in progress. On August 8, LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 31.29 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 868 to 151,197 hands [1]. - Fundamentals: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. In the secondary lead sector, waste lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, and some refineries have reduced or suspended production due to raw material shortages or cost reversals. Demand is expected to pick up in the peak season, but most companies suspended purchases for inventory checks this week [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Data: SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,460 yuan/ton, up 0.27%; the futures主力合约 closed at 22,590 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The LME3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at 2,808 dollars/ton, down 0.92%. The trading volume of the futures active contract increased by 7.78% to 87,765 hands, and the open interest decreased by 1.59% to 93,386 hands [1]. - Industry News: Gold Resource reported a 32% year - on - year decrease in zinc ore metal production in Q2 2025 to 1,380 tons due to lower grinding volume. As of August 11, SMM zinc ingot inventory in seven regions reached 119,200 tons, an increase of 11,900 tons from August 4 and 6,000 tons from August 7 [1]. - Fundamentals: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remained flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton last week, and the imported zinc ore processing fee index rose to 82.25 dollars/dry ton. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and output is increasing. Last week, downstream buyers purchased at low prices at the beginning of the week, but the restocking sentiment weakened as prices rebounded [1].