国新国证期货早报-20250812

Report Summary Market Performance on August 11, 2025 - Stock Index Futures: A-share market rallied with Shanghai Composite Index up 0.34% to 3647.55, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.46% to 11291.43, and ChiNext Index up 1.96% to 2379.82. Trading volume reached 1.827 trillion yuan, up 116.7 billion yuan from last Friday. CSI 300 Index closed at 4122.51, up 17.54 [1][2] - Coke and Coking Coal Futures: Coke weighted index closed at 1735.3, up 33.2; coking coal weighted index closed at 1234.7 yuan, up 37.8. Coke's 6th round of price increase started, while coking coal's spot price fluctuated. Import of coking coal decreased by 7.36% from January to June, and export of coke decreased by 28% during the same period [3][4][5] - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract edged down on Monday but rebounded slightly at night due to technical factors. EU's beet production is expected to increase by 1% in 2025/26, but disease remains a concern [5] - Rubber Futures: Supported by Fed's rate - cut expectation and adverse weather in Thailand, Shanghai Rubber futures rose on Monday and consolidated at night. Indonesia's rubber export increased by 11.6% in H1, while Vietnam's decreased by 3.4% [6] - Soybean Meal Futures: CBOT soybeans rose over 2% on August 11 due to improved US export demand. US soybean export sales reached a 6 - and - a - half - month high. Domestic M2601 contract closed at 3072 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. High domestic supply and low terminal demand coexist, but rising import cost and low Q4 procurement support prices [7] - Live Pig Futures: LH2511 contract closed at 14140 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. Low consumption in summer, expected increase in group - farm supply, and high overall capacity lead to a loose supply - demand situation [8] - Palm Oil Futures: P2509 contract closed at 9218, up 2.65%. Malaysia's July palm oil export, production, and inventory increased, while import decreased [9] - Shanghai Copper Futures: The main contract rose. Tight copper supply and increased short - term supply disruptions are positive for prices, but expected supply increase after US tariff implementation poses pressure [9] - Cotton Futures: Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13900 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory at Xinjiang warehouses decreased by 80 lots [10] - Iron Ore Futures: 2509 contract closed at 796.5 yuan, up 0.82%. Global shipments decreased last week, but demand remains resilient due to high iron - water production [10] - Asphalt Futures: 2510 contract closed at 3481 yuan, down 0.51%. Capacity utilization and shipments increased last week, and low inventory supports prices [11] - Log Futures: 2509 contract opened at 833.5, closed at 832.5, and decreased by 1404 lots. Spot prices in Shandong remained stable, while those in Jiangsu increased. Strong expectation and weak reality coexist [11] - Steel Futures: rb2510 closed at 3250 yuan/ton, hc2510 at 3465 yuan/ton. Production restrictions in Tangshan and strong coke and coking coal prices support steel prices [12] - Alumina Futures: ao2509 closed at 3182 yuan/ton. With increasing capacity, supply is becoming more abundant, and the market is shifting to cost - based pricing [12] - Shanghai Aluminum Futures: al2509 closed at 20700 yuan/ton. Ample supply, weak demand, and mixed economic expectations put pressure on prices [13]