LPG：盘面估值偏低，关注减仓风险，丙烯：供需收紧，价格存一定支撑

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG has a relatively low valuation on the futures market, and investors should pay attention to the risk of position reduction [1]. - The supply - demand relationship of propylene is tightening, and there is certain support for its price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - LPG Futures Prices: On August 12, 2025, PG2509 closed at 3,799 with a daily increase of 0.66% and a night - session close of 3,788 with a decline of 0.29%; PG2510 closed at 4,273 with a daily increase of 0.49% and a night - session close of 4,268 with a decline of 0.12%; PL2601 closed at 6,491 with a daily increase of 0.62% and a night - session close of 6,498 with an increase of 0.11%; PL2602 closed at 6,541 with a daily increase of 0.60% and a night - session close of 6,559 with an increase of 0.28% [1]. - LPG Positions and Trading Volumes: PG2509 had a trading volume of 72,506, a decrease of 26,484 from the previous day, and a position of 105,831, a decrease of 2,800; PG2510 had a trading volume of 26,378, a decrease of 3,884, and a position of 90,819, an increase of 603; PL2601 had a trading volume of 1,288, an increase of 101, and a position of 4,453, a decrease of 294; PL2602 had a trading volume of 39 and a decrease of 10 [1]. - LPG Spreads: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 521 (previous day: 576); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 601 (previous day: 626); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 49 (previous day: - 151); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 91 (previous day: - 126); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 166 (previous day: - 126) [1]. - LPG Industry Chain Data: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.8% (last week: 72.6%); the MTBE operating rate was 66.6% (last week: 67.8%); the alkylation operating rate was 50.0% (last week: 48.8%) [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7]. 3.3 Market Information - Saudi CP Expectations: On August 8, 2025, the September Saudi CP expectation for propane was 522 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 492 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton. The October Saudi CP expectation for propane was 537 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; for butane, it was 507 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton [8]. - Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans: Multiple companies, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans, with some start times dating back to 2023 and some end times still undetermined [9]. - Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans: Many factories, such as Shengli Heavy Oil Plant, Zhenghe Petrochemical, etc., have device maintenance plans, with different start and end times and varying loss volumes [10].