周度策略行业配置观点：恒生科技为什么最近没有跟上A股的脚步-20250812

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent performance of the A-share market has been strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.11% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.25% during the week of August 4 to August 8, 2025. This contrasts with the underperformance of the Hang Seng Tech Index, which lagged behind despite the global AI industry upgrade catalyzed by the release of GPT-5 [1][2][7]. - The divergence in performance between the A-share market and the Hang Seng Tech Index is attributed to different driving logic in the two markets. The Hang Seng Tech Index is under pressure from liquidity constraints due to the linked exchange rate system and a strong US dollar, which has led to capital repatriation and downward pressure on valuations of major stocks like Tencent and Alibaba [2][16]. - The report notes that the recent trend of capital flow has shifted from technology growth sectors to cyclical sectors, with significant inflows into defensive sectors such as banking and pharmaceuticals. This shift has left the AI sector within the Hang Seng Tech Index in a "vacuum period" lacking event-driven catalysts [2][16]. Group 2 - The report suggests that the relative weakness of the Hang Seng Tech Index is not expected to be a long-term trend. It points out that the current dynamic PE of the Hang Seng Tech Index is 21.87, which is at the 23.28% percentile over the past decade, indicating a favorable valuation [3][17]. - The report recommends focusing on the banking sector and the Hang Seng Tech Index, as the fundamentals are expected to improve, and the core assets in the banking sector are likely to benefit first from this improvement [3][17]. - The report emphasizes that the recent strong performance of the A-share market is supported by policies aimed at new industrialization, particularly in sectors like integrated circuits and industrial mother machines, which have received enhanced financial support [1][7].