国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250812

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, with investment advice such as "oscillating repeatedly," "broadly oscillating," and "bullishly oscillating" [5][10][14]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Trend Forecast: Oscillating repeatedly [5]. - Fundamental Data: The previous day's futures closing price was 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan or 0.82% from the previous day; the previous day's position was 271,889 lots, a decrease of 36,188 lots; spot prices of imported and domestic ores all increased [6]. - Macro and Industry News: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [6]. - Trend Intensity: -1 [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - Trend Forecast: Broadly oscillating due to sector sentiment resonance [10]. - Fundamental Data: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,250 yuan/ton and 3,465 yuan/ton, up 1.09% and 1.29% respectively; spot prices in various regions showed different degrees of increase or remained unchanged [10]. - Macro and Industry News: In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 5.6% month-on-month; in July, automobile production and sales decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year; in late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month-on-month, pig iron decreased by 4.5% month-on-month, and steel increased by 0.5% month-on-month; according to the weekly data of Steel Union on August 7, the output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, hot-rolled coils decreased by 7.9 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 23.47 tons [11][12]. - Trend Intensity: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Trend Forecast: Broadly oscillating [14]. - Fundamental Data: The previous day's futures closing prices of ferrosilicon 2509 and 2510 were 5,830 yuan/ton and 5,820 yuan/ton respectively; the previous day's futures closing prices of silicomanganese 2509 and 2510 were 6,100 yuan/ton and 6,112 yuan/ton respectively; spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5,450 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - Macro and Industry News: On August 8, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Qinghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Gansu increased by 50 yuan/ton; the price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5,850 - 5,950 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the total manganese ore inventory increased by 8.83 tons month-on-month [15]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - Trend Forecast: Bullishly oscillating [17]. - Fundamental Data: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2509 and J2509 were 1,106.5 yuan/ton and 1,681 yuan/ton, up 3.5% and 1.7% respectively; most spot prices remained unchanged [17]. - Macro and Industry News: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [18]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal [19]. Logs - Trend Forecast: Oscillating repeatedly [20]. - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of the 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease; most spot prices remained unchanged [21]. - Macro and Industry News: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [23]. - Trend Intensity: 1 [23].