Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Palm oil (★★), Cotton (★), Red dates (★), Live pigs (★★) [1] - Large - range market: Soybean meal (★), Rapeseed meal (★) [1] Core Views - Soybean meal: In the context of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs, it should be treated as a large - range market. Although there was inventory reduction this week, there is a risk of a month - on - month increase in the US soybean yield in the August USDA report, so be cautious when going long [1][5]. - Rapeseed meal: With the recovery of global rapeseed production year - on - year but the risk of a yield reduction in Canadian rapeseed, and considering factors such as import volume, tariffs, and consumption substitution, it should be treated as a large - range market. Pay attention to planting weather, data adjustments in the US agricultural report, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian progress [1][7]. - Palm oil: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable to the consumption expectations of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The trend is mainly to go long on dips, but beware of the risk of a near - month squeeze [1][9]. - Cotton: Before the new cotton is listed, the supply is tight, and there is a certain support at the bottom. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" and the extension of Sino - US tariffs, there is a high probability of an improvement in downstream demand. Consider the opportunity to go long on dips [1][14]. - Red dates: There are still great differences in the market regarding the reduction range, and there is speculation risk. In the short term, the speculation period around the opening price is relatively long, and the recent inventory reduction speed has accelerated, which is still favorable for the long - term trend. It is recommended to go long on dips [1][17]. - Live pigs: The current situation is "weak reality, strong expectation". The short - term and medium - term supply pressure is high, but the capacity reduction of leading enterprises may help the far - month contracts rise. It is not recommended to blindly short - sell in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity to establish long positions in far - month contracts on dips [1][20]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Market data: The main contract's closing price is 3072 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3020.57 yuan/ton, up 0.17% [3]. - Inventory situation: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.20 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 655.59 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.00 million tons; the soybean meal inventory was 104.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons [4]. - Trading situation: On August 5, the far - month basis trading volume increased significantly, reaching a three - year high [4]. Rapeseed Meal - Market data: The main contract's closing price is 2724 yuan/ton, down 1.77% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2707.32 yuan/ton, down 0.66% [6]. - Inventory situation: As of August 8, the coastal oil mill's rapeseed inventory was 13.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 3.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 million tons [7]. - Demand situation: Due to the oversupply of soybean meal, the substitution effect of soybean meal on rapeseed meal is enhanced, squeezing the market share of rapeseed meal [7]. Palm Oil - Market data: The main contract's closing price is 9218 yuan/ton, up 2.65% from the previous day. The national average price is 9060 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [8]. - Inventory situation: As of August 8, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 59.98 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.76 million tons, an increase of 3.02% [9]. - Export situation: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly compared with the same period last month [9]. Cotton - Market data: The main contract CF2509's closing price is 13880 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 0.09% to 15179 yuan/ton [12]. - International situation: The US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased by 2% week - on - week to 53%, and the non - drought rate in the US cotton area increased to 82%. India's cotton planting area increased by 7% year - on - year, and the sowing progress was 24% [12]. - Domestic situation: Xinjiang's new cotton is mostly in the boll - opening stage, and the commercial inventory has decreased to 200.67 million tons. The downstream "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to start in 1 - 2 weeks [13][14]. Red Dates - Market data: The main contract CJ2601's closing price is 11685 yuan/ton, up 3.32% from the previous day [16]. - Production area situation: The new - season jujubes are in the fruit - setting stage. The estimated new - season output is between 56 - 62 million tons, but there are different views on the reduction range [16]. - Inventory situation: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, and the inventory reduction speed accelerated [16]. Live Pigs - Market data: The main contract Lh2511's closing price is 14180 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous day. The domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton [19]. - Supply situation: In August, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union's sample enterprises increased by 5.26% month - on - month. The number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 increased, and the slaughter volume in the second half of the year is expected to increase [19]. - Demand situation: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand in scenarios such as schools has weakened [19].
豆粕日报-20250812
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-12 02:18