铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, there is a complex situation with tariff extensions, an expanded list of Fed Chair candidates, and expectations of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, causing risk appetite to fluctuate. Attention is on the US CPI data to judge the Fed's interest - rate cut path. In China, the "anti - involution" sentiment on the supply side has restarted, the new energy market has been boosted, the stock market has risen with heavy trading volume, and the bond market has adjusted significantly. The stock market may turn to a volatile trend after breaking through the high point, and the bond market opportunities may be catalyzed by the central bank's bond - buying and weakening fundamentals [2][3]. - For precious metals, with the risk of US gold import tariffs removed and the new suspension of tariffs between China and the US, the short - term prices of gold and silver are expected to continue to correct [4]. - For copper, although the short - term price is under pressure due to the partial resumption of a Chilean mine and a slight rebound in the US dollar index, it is expected to turn stronger after the adjustment [5][6]. - For aluminum, the market continues to be in a state of game. With the increase in inventory and the high price affecting downstream procurement, but a warm macro - atmosphere, the price will maintain a volatile trend [7][8]. - For alumina, the short - term price is volatile, and the long - term pressure may increase due to the expected increase in supply [9][10]. - For zinc, the short - term price is expected to be mainly volatile, waiting for the guidance of US inflation data [11]. - For lead, due to stable supply, limited improvement in consumption, and approaching contract delivery, the price is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation [12]. - For tin, the short - term prices at home and abroad are expected to be firm, but caution is needed due to the upcoming US inflation data [13][14]. - For industrial silicon, with the fermentation of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the short - term futures price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [15][16]. - For lithium carbonate, with the realization of resource disturbances and the potential for further escalation, the price can be cautiously bullish, but attention should be paid to the potential pressure from Australian mines [17]. - For nickel, although the short - term price is boosted by the warming macro - expectations, the fundamentals are still weak, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [18]. - For crude oil, the short - term price is volatile, waiting for the result of the US - Russia summit meeting [19]. - For steel products, with continuous inventory accumulation, the price is expected to maintain a volatile and rebound trend due to the upcoming supply contraction from the military parade production restrictions [20]. - For iron ore, with a significant decrease in arrivals and stable demand, the price is expected to be volatile [21][22]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, due to the uncertainty of policies and the possible impact of precipitation on soybean growth, the short - term price of soybean meal may be in a wide - range oscillation [23][24]. - For palm oil, with the inventory increase lower than expected and strong export demand, the short - term price is expected to be volatile and strong [25][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The trading data of various metal futures contracts, including closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units, are presented. For example, SHFE copper closed at 79020 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan with a 0.68% increase; COMEX gold closed at 3393.70 dollars/ounce, down 64.50 dollars with a 1.87% decrease [27]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - The data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel products, iron ore, coke, coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal are provided, including price changes, inventory changes, and basis changes over different time periods. For example, for copper, the SHFE copper main contract price increased from 78490 yuan/ton on August 8th to 79020 yuan/ton on August 11th, and the LME copper inventory decreased from 155850 tons to 155700 tons [28][31][33].