Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The core contradiction is that the shutdown of plants in the Shandong market has reduced the external supply of spot goods, leading to a significant increase in spot prices [3]. There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include the 750,000 - ton PDH unit of Zhenhua in the Shandong market breaking down over the weekend, reducing the external supply by 2,000 tons per day and causing the spot market price to rise by 300 yuan/ton, and the planned maintenance of 900,000 - ton PDH units of Wanhua Penglai and Jinneng in the late - month, which will narrow the supply - demand gap in the Shandong market [4]. Bearish factors are the continuous decline of crude oil at the cost end and the price pressure of external propane exports at a high level [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Propylene Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in propylene prices, for a long spot position, it is recommended to sell PL2601 futures at a ratio of 50% in the price range of 6600 - 6700 to lock in profits. Also, sell PL2601C6800 call options at a ratio of 50% in the range of 160 - 200 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [2]. - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy PL2601 futures at a ratio of 25% in the price range of 6200 - 6300 to lock in procurement costs. Also, sell PL2601P5800 put options at a ratio of 25% in the range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price if the propylene price falls [2]. Price and Spread Seasonality - There are seasonal charts of propylene market prices in Shandong and the East China region, propylene 01 - 02 and 02 - 03 month - spreads, and PP01 - PL01, PL01 - PG01, PL01 - 3MA01 spreads in 2025 [6][8][9].
丙烯产业风险管理日报-20250812
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-12 02:17