宝城期货原油早报-20250812

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with short - term and medium - term outlooks being "volatile", and the intraday view being "volatile and slightly stronger". It is predicted to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Tuesday [1][5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Time - cycle and View Summary - For the crude oil 2510 contract, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the intraday view is "volatile and slightly stronger", with a reference view of "running strongly" [1]. 2. Core Logic Summary - There are multi - empty divergences at the macro level. Trump has escalated the tariff war by demanding a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors, while also arranging "dovish" officials in the Fed. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September is as high as 91.5%. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are increasing crude oil production, and supply pressure is rising. The demand side is in the peak season, with a good supply - demand structure, but there is a risk of a decline in demand due to seasonal factors. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract slightly rose 0.33% to 491.7 yuan/barrel in the overnight session on Monday [5].