西南期货早间评论-20250812

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For treasury bonds, it's expected that there will be no trend - driven market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - Regarding stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and going long on stock index futures is under consideration [8][9]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is recommended [9]. - In the case of steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil), investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [10]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities on pullbacks and manage positions [12]. - Concerning coking coal and coke, they may continue to show strong performance, and investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [14]. - For ferroalloys, there may be a short - term supply surplus, and long positions can be considered when the spot falls into the loss - making range again [16][18]. - Regarding crude oil, it may run weakly, and the main contract can be put on hold for now [19][20][21]. - For fuel oil, the main contract can be used to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [23][24]. - In the case of synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [25][26]. - For natural rubber, pay attention to going long opportunities after pullbacks [27][28]. - Regarding PVC, it will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [29][30]. - For urea, it will fluctuate in the short - term and be bullish in the medium - term [32]. - In the case of PX, it may fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [33]. - For PTA, it can be traded within an interval, considering the current situation [34][35]. - Regarding ethylene glycol, interval trading is recommended, focusing on port inventory and import changes [36]. - For short - fiber, it may fluctuate following costs, and risk control is needed [37][38]. - In the case of bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [39]. - For soda ash, supply may remain high, and it is supported by double - coking costs in the short - term [40][41]. - Regarding glass, pay attention to spot trade and regional de - stocking; in the long - term, focus on capacity clearance of old production lines [42]. - For caustic soda, the price is expected to be weakly stable, and the market will gradually return to fundamental logic [43][44][45]. - In the case of pulp, it is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short - term [46][47]. - For lithium carbonate, it is better for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [48]. - Regarding copper, the price may rebound, and the main contract of SHFE copper can be put on hold for now [50][51]. - For tin, the price is expected to oscillate [52]. - Regarding nickel, the price is expected to oscillate [53]. - In the case of soybean oil and soybean meal, consider long positions in soybean meal after adjustment, and exit long positions in soybean oil at high levels [54][55][56]. - For palm oil, consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [56][57]. - Regarding rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider long positions in rapeseed - related products [58][59][60]. - For cotton, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go short on rebounds [61][62][63]. - Regarding sugar, it is recommended to wait and see [63][65]. - For apples, it is recommended to wait and see [66][67][68]. - Regarding live pigs, consider reverse arbitrage strategies [68][69][70]. - For eggs, consider holding 9 - 10 reverse arbitrage [71][72]. - Regarding corn and starch, consider virtual call options for old - crop contracts, and corn starch follows the corn market [73][74][75]. - For logs, short - term bullish sentiment may be supported [77][78][79]. 3. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 112 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - driven market [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. Domestic economic growth is stable but lacks momentum. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures is considered [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw a decline in gold and silver futures. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and central banks' gold - buying and the expected Fed rate - cut are favorable for gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue [9]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. Policy changes dominate the market, and the medium - term trend will return to supply - demand logic. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, and the steel industry's stability policy may be a positive factor [10]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in iron ore futures. Policy changes dominate the market, and iron ore prices follow coking coal. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium - term [12]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw a significant increase in coking coal and coke futures. Policy - induced production cuts in some mines are the main reason for the price increase, and they may continue to be strong [14]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw an increase in manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures. The short - term demand has a slight recovery, but supply is still high. There may be a supply surplus in the short - term, and long positions can be considered at low levels [16][17][18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw a sharp decline in INE crude oil. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and the market focus is on the US - Russia talks. Crude oil may run weakly [19][20]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw a sharp decline in fuel oil, hitting a multi - day low. Singapore's fuel oil inventory has increased, and the market is bearish on fuel oil prices [23]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw an increase in synthetic rubber futures. The raw material price has rebounded, and the market is waiting for a rebound after stabilization [25]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw an increase in natural rubber futures. The supply is affected by rainfall, and there is support for going long after pullbacks [27]. PVC - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in PVC futures. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and it will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [29]. Urea - The previous trading day saw a decline in urea futures. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and it is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [32]. PX - The previous trading day saw an increase in PX futures. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, and it may fluctuate and adjust [33]. PTA - The previous trading day saw an increase in PTA futures. The short - term supply is stable, demand may weaken, and it can be traded within an interval [34][35]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw an increase in ethylene glycol futures. The port inventory has increased slightly, and it can be traded within an interval, focusing on inventory and imports [36]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day saw an increase in short - fiber futures. The short - term supply is high, demand has improved, and it may fluctuate following costs [37][38]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw an increase in bottle - chip futures. The device maintenance has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [39]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw an increase in soda ash futures. Supply is expected to increase, demand is average, and the price may be supported by double - coking costs in the short - term [40][41]. Glass - The previous trading day saw an increase in glass futures. The production line is stable, inventory de - stocking has slowed down, and attention should be paid to spot trade and de - stocking [42]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw an increase in caustic soda futures. Supply has increased, and the price is expected to be weakly stable. The market will return to fundamental logic [43][44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day saw an increase in pulp futures. Supply has a marginal decrease, inventory is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw an 8% increase in lithium carbonate futures. The mining suspension in Yichun has raised cost concerns, but the supply - demand surplus remains. It is recommended to operate with a light position [48]. Copper - The previous trading day saw a sharp increase in SHFE copper. The Fed's rate - cut expectation supports the copper price, and the main contract can be put on hold [50][51]. Tin - The previous trading day saw an oscillating increase in SHFE tin. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to oscillate [52]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw an increase in SHFE nickel. The supply is in surplus, and the price is expected to oscillate [53]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw a decline in soybean meal and an increase in soybean oil. The soybean crushing volume has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased. Consider long positions in soybean meal after adjustment and exit long positions in soybean oil at high levels [54][55][56]. Palm Oil - The market has mixed factors, and consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [56][57]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed market is affected by rainfall. In China, inventory changes vary, and consider long positions in rapeseed - related products [58][59][60]. Cotton - The domestic and international cotton markets have different trends. The global supply - demand is loose, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go short on rebounds [61][62][63]. Sugar - The domestic and international sugar markets have different situations. Abroad, production is expected to be high. Domestically, inventory is low but imports will be high before October. It is recommended to wait and see [63][65]. Apples - The apple market has a slight increase in production, and it is recommended to wait and see [66][67][68]. Live Pigs - The pig price has declined slightly. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and consider reverse arbitrage strategies [68][69][70]. Eggs - The egg price has increased. Supply is expected to increase in August, and consider holding 9 - 10 reverse arbitrage [71][72]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day saw an increase in corn and a decline in corn starch. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and consider virtual call options for old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows the corn market [73][74][75]. Logs - The previous trading day saw an increase in log futures. The arrival volume has decreased, and short - term bullish sentiment may be supported [77][78][79].