HIKVISION(SZ:002415) Orient Securities·2025-08-12 02:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 43.00 CNY [1][6] Core Views - The company has proposed a mid-term dividend plan, suggesting a cash dividend of 4.00 CNY per 10 shares (tax included) to all shareholders, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [5][10] - The company is expected to see significant improvements in cash flow and accelerated net profit growth, with a forecasted EPS of 1.46 CNY, 1.72 CNY, and 2.00 CNY for 2025-2027 [6][11] - The company has implemented measures for high-quality development, including product line management and vertical management for small and medium enterprises, which are expected to support future growth [10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 89,341 million CNY in 2023 to 125,170 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 13% [8] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 16,040 million CNY in 2023 to 21,961 million CNY in 2027, with a notable recovery in 2025 [8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 14,108 million CNY in 2023 to 18,435 million CNY in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 16% in 2027 [8] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 44% over the forecast period, indicating consistent profitability [8] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities exceeding 70 billion CNY in Q2 2025, significantly higher than previous periods [10] - Total cash dividends for 2025 are projected to exceed 101 billion CNY, demonstrating a strong focus on returning value to shareholders [10]