Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints - The black building materials market is currently in a state where supply is subject to continuous disruptions, and prices are generally strong. With stable fundamentals, there is a possibility of further resonance between macro - level positive factors and the industry. In the short term, before new driving factors emerge, the market will mainly oscillate within the current range [1][2] Summary by Category Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mines' shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrivals at 45 ports dropped to the level of the same period last year, with relatively stable supply and limited increase [2] - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Due to routine maintenance, iron - water production decreased slightly but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production cuts in the short term due to profit reasons is small. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - restriction policies in the second half of the month [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of iron ore in port areas increased due to the concentrated arrival of sea - floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation was limited [2] - Outlook: With limited negative driving factors in the fundamentals, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [2] Carbon Element - Supply: In the main production areas, some coal mines reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production inspections. Some coal mines actively stopped or reduced production under the "276 - working - day" system. Although the import of Mongolian coal remained at a high level, the TT mine in Mongolia implemented quantity - limiting measures for some traders, which may affect future customs clearance [3] - Demand: Coke production remained stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. Some coal mines had started to accumulate inventory, and the spot market became more cautious [3] - Outlook: With supply disruptions, the short - term supply - demand relationship is tight, and the futures market is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the short term [3] Alloys - Manganese Silicon: With the continuous increase in coke prices, the cost support for manganese silicon has been continuously strengthened. The market is more cautious, but traders are still reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. The downstream demand for manganese silicon remains resilient, but as manufacturers' resumption of production progresses, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate following the sector [3] - Ferrosilicon: The production of ferrosilicon is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand remains resilient, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively healthy. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate following the sector [3] Glass - Demand: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of raw glass increased month - on - month, indicating speculative purchases by downstream enterprises. After the futures market declined, the sentiment in the spot market cooled down, and the sales of middle - stream and upstream enterprises decreased significantly [4] - Supply: One production line is still waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, with few internal contradictions but more market - sentiment disturbances [4] - Outlook: Although the cost support has strengthened due to the recent increase in coal prices, the fundamentals are still weak. In the short term, the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely [4] Steel - Core Logic: As the parade date approaches, there are continuous rumors of production restrictions in steel mills. The output of rebar increased, while that of hot - rolled coils decreased. The apparent demand for rebar rebounded, but inventory continued to accumulate. In the off - season, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased, and inventory also continued to accumulate [9] - Outlook: Although the fundamentals of steel have weakened marginally, the low inventory and potential production - restriction disturbances before the parade still support the short - term futures market. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel - mill production - restriction policies and terminal demand [9] Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port transactions increased. Overseas mines' shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and arrivals at 45 ports dropped to the level of the same period last year. The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Iron - water production decreased slightly due to routine maintenance but remained at a high level year - on - year. The total inventory of iron ore in port areas increased due to the concentrated arrival of sea - floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation was limited [9] - Outlook: With high demand and stable supply, and limited negative driving factors in the fundamentals, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [9] Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel decreased as market sentiment improved and the willingness to sell declined. The demand increased as the daily consumption of electric furnaces reached a high level in the same period, and the total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production increased slightly. The inventory in factories decreased slightly, and the available inventory days dropped to a relatively low level [10] - Outlook: With decreasing supply and increasing demand, and optimistic market sentiment, the price is expected to oscillate [10] Coke - Core Logic: In the futures market, coke prices oscillated at a high level following coking coal. In the spot market, prices increased. After five rounds of price increases, coke enterprises' overall profit returned to near the break - even point, and production remained stable. Downstream steel mills had good profits and high production enthusiasm. Although iron - water production decreased slightly, it remained at a high level. The overall inventory of coke enterprises was low, but some downstream steel mills had tight inventory [10] - Outlook: With a relatively healthy fundamental situation and the start of the sixth round of price increases, the futures market still has support in the short term. Attention should be paid to possible production - restriction policies during the parade [10] Coking Coal - Core Logic: In the futures market, prices oscillated at a high level due to supply disruptions. In the spot market, prices increased. In the main production areas, some coal mines reduced production, and some implemented the "276 - working - day" system. Although the import of Mongolian coal remained at a high level, the TT mine in Mongolia implemented quantity - limiting measures for some traders. Coke production remained stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and some coal mines had started to accumulate inventory [3][12] - Outlook: Due to supply disruptions, the short - term supply - demand relationship is tight, and the futures market is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the short term. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal - mine resumption of production, and Mongolian coal imports [3] Glass - Core Logic: The demand in the off - season decreased, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of raw glass increased significantly to the highest level of the year, indicating speculative purchases by downstream enterprises. After the futures market declined, the sentiment in the spot market cooled down, and the sales of middle - stream and upstream enterprises decreased significantly. One production line is still waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, with few internal contradictions but more market - sentiment disturbances. Although the cost support has strengthened due to the recent increase in coal prices, the fundamentals are still weak [13] - Outlook: In the short term, the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely. In the long term, with weak actual demand, strong policy expectations, and relatively high raw - material prices, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If prices return to fundamental - based trading, they are expected to oscillate downward [13] Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. After a round of negative feedback, the price dropped rapidly in the short term and is now at a discount to the spot price. The supply capacity has not been cleared, and production remains at a high level. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain at a rigid - demand level, while the demand for light soda ash is weak [14] - Outlook: In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate. In the long term, the price center is expected to decline to promote capacity reduction [14] Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: With the continuous increase in coke prices, the cost support for manganese silicon has been continuously strengthened. The market is more cautious, but traders are still reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. The downstream demand for manganese silicon remains resilient, but as manufacturers' resumption of production progresses, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser [3][16] - Outlook: With limited inventory pressure in the short term, the price is expected to follow the sector. In the long term, as supply pressure increases, the upward price space may be limited [16] Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: With the continuous increase in coking - coal futures prices, market sentiment remained positive, and ferrosilicon prices oscillated upward. The cost support for the spot market is strong due to the increase in the prices of semi - coke and settlement electricity. The supply is expected to increase as manufacturers' profit improves and the enthusiasm for resuming production increases. The downstream demand for steel - making remains resilient, and the price of magnesium ingots has increased steadily [17] - Outlook: With limited inventory pressure in the short term, the price is expected to follow the sector. In the long term, as the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, the fundamentals may have hidden concerns, and the upward price space is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [17]
供应扰动不断，??偏强运
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-12 02:22