中辉期货日刊-20250812

1. Report's Investment Ratings for Different Industries - Cautiously Bearish: Crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG [1][34][38][42] - Cautiously Bullish: LPG, urea [1][48] - Bearish Rebound: L, PP, PVC, propylene [1][14][21][28][56] - Bearish: Methanol, asphalt [3][46][52] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: Supply pressure is rising, and the oil price center continues to move down. Although the decline space is narrowing, there is still a downward pressure on oil prices. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday [1][5]. - LPG: With the cost side stabilizing and the high basis, the rebound momentum is increasing. The downstream chemical demand is fair, but the supply and inventory are neutral to bearish [1][11]. - L: The cost has stopped falling, and the demand has improved marginally. The supply pressure has increased marginally, but the agricultural film peak season is approaching, and the far - month contracts are resistant to decline [1][18]. - PP: The cost support has improved, but the downstream trading is weak. The fundamentals have limited further negative factors, and the technical side has bottom support. Pay attention to the peak - season restocking rhythm [1][25]. - PVC: It rebounds in the short - term following the cost increase, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [1][32]. - PX: The supply side has little change, while the demand side has strengthened the maintenance of PTA devices. The expected tight balance of supply and demand is loosening, and the inventory is still relatively high. Be cautiously bearish [1][36]. - PTA: The maintenance of devices has increased recently, and the future supply pressure is expected to rise. The demand side is weak, and the cost support is weakening. Be cautiously bearish [1][40]. - MEG: The domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still low compared to the same period. The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is expected to weaken. Be cautiously bearish [1][44]. - Methanol: The supply pressure is increasing as the domestic maintenance devices resume production and overseas devices increase their loads. The demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. Be bearish [3][46]. - Urea: The operating load of urea devices is expected to increase, but the domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, and the export is relatively good. The cost side has some support. Be cautiously bullish [3][50]. - Asphalt: The cost side of crude oil is under pressure due to OPEC+ production increase, and the supply pressure is rising. The demand has declined in the north due to precipitation. The valuation is high, and it is bearish in the medium - long term [3][54]. - Propylene: The Zhenhua device had an unexpected shutdown, causing the spot price to rise sharply. The cost support of PDH is weakening, and the downstream demand is insufficient. However, the absolute price is low, and it is advisable to try to go long on dips [3][59]. 3. Summaries According to Different Commodities Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated in a range. WTI rose 0.13%, Brent rose 0.06%, and SC fell 0.79% [4]. - Basic Logic: The support of the peak season for oil prices is gradually weakening, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase is rising. The oil price still has room to compress, but the downward support is strengthening. The medium - long - term price may reach around $60. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday [5]. - Fundamentals: Kazakhstan's oil exports to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline from January to July increased by 38% year - on - year. Azerbaijan's September BTC crude oil exports were lower than August. Shandong independent refinery's oil arrivals decreased by 8.18% week - on - week. US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: For the medium - long - term trend, due to new energy substitution and OPEC expansion, supply is gradually in surplus. Focus on the break - even point of new US shale oil wells at around $60. Technically, it is weak below the 20 - day moving average, but the support is rising. The strategy is to take profit on short positions and buy put options. Pay attention to the range of SC [490 - 505] [7]. LPG - Market Review: On August 8, the PG main contract closed at 3,803 yuan/ton, down 0.89% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,500 (-20) yuan/ton, 4,403 (-3) yuan/ton, and 4,380 (0) yuan/ton respectively [10]. - Basic Logic: The cost side of oil is weak, but the self - fundamentals are fair, with a high basis. The recent increase in positions has strengthened the downward support. The supply has increased slightly, while the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates have shown different trends. The refinery inventory has decreased, and the port inventory has increased [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, after the geopolitical risks are released, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the LPG - to - crude oil ratio is similar to the same period last year, with a neutral valuation. Technically, the RSI is in the oversold range, and positions have reached a high level, indicating a possible short - term rebound. The strategy is to try to go long with a light position. Pay attention to the range of PG [3,750 - 3,850] [12]. L - Market Review: The L2509 contract closed at 7,314 yuan/ton. The North China main basis was - 64 yuan/ton, and the L9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 400 [16]. - Basic Logic: The cost has stopped falling, and the demand has improved marginally, with continuous increases in spot prices. Most devices have restarted recently, increasing the supply pressure. However, the agricultural film peak season is approaching, and the operating rate has been rising for three consecutive weeks. The absolute price has a low valuation, and the far - month contracts are resistant to decline. The strategy is to try to go long on dips as the peak season approaches. Pay attention to the range of L [7,200 - 7,400] [18]. - Strategy Recommendation: Try to go long on dips [19]. PP - Market Review: The PP2509 closed at 7,095 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 37 yuan/ton and a PP9 - 1 spread of - 25 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [23]. - Basic Logic: The spot price of propylene has increased, improving the cost support, but the downstream trading is weak, and the spot price has declined slightly. The upstream maintains a high level of maintenance, and the export profit has turned negative. The domestic demand is at the switching point between the off - season and peak season, and the downstream operating rate has been rising for two consecutive weeks. The fundamentals have limited further negative factors, and the technical side has bottom support. The strategy is to try to go long on pull - backs as the peak season approaches. Pay attention to the range of PP [7,000 - 7,150] [25]. - Strategy Recommendation: Try to go long on pull - backs [26]. PVC - Market Review: The main contract V2509 closed at 5,010 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1,745, mainly distributed in Hangzhou Wanfeng Warehouse, Benniu Warehouse, and Zhejiang Guomao Warehouse. The V2601 contract increased its positions by 70,000 lots, closing at 5,158 yuan/ton [30]. - Basic Logic: The price of thermal coal has been rising continuously, and PVC rebounds in the short - term following the cost increase. However, the fundamentals remain weak, with an increase in warehouse receipts. The upstream operating rate has increased to 79%, and the social inventory has been accumulating for seven consecutive weeks. New production capacity will be gradually released in August, and both domestic and foreign demand are in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The strategy is to rebound in the short - term following the cost range and wait to go short after the rebound. Pay attention to the range of V [4,900 - 5,100] [32]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions as the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory in August [33]. PX - Market Review: On August 8, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,726 (-30) yuan/ton. The PX9 - 1 spread was 50 (+4) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 149 (-2.4) yuan/ton [35]. - Basic Logic: The domestic PX devices have little change, while overseas devices have slightly reduced their loads. The PXN spread is at a high level this year. The demand side has strengthened the maintenance of PTA devices due to low processing fees, and the expected tight balance of supply and demand is loosening. The inventory is still relatively high. Recently, there is no macro - level positive news at home and abroad, and the oil price is fluctuating weakly. Be cautiously bearish [36]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions, look for high - selling opportunities, and sell call options at the same time. Pay attention to the range of PX [6,700 - 6,795] [37]. PTA - Market Review: On August 8, the PTA price in East China was 4,670 (-15) yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,684 (-4) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was - 20 (+18) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was - 14 (-11) yuan/ton [39]. - Basic Logic: The PTA processing fees are generally low, and the supply - side devices have significantly reduced their loads. The demand side, including downstream polyester and terminal weaving, is weak. The TA inventory is high, and the cost support is weakening. The expected tight balance of supply and demand in August is loosening. Be cautiously bearish, but pay attention to the opportunity of going long at the bottom due to low processing fees [40]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions, look for high - selling opportunities, and sell call options at the same time. Pay attention to the range of TA [4,660 - 4,730] [41]. MEG - Market Review: On August 8, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,456 (-19) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,384 (-12) yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 spread was - 38 (-4) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 72 (-7) yuan/ton [43]. - Basic Logic: Domestic MEG devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still low compared to the same period. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are in the off - season, and the terminal orders are generally low. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in August, and the low inventory supports the price. The short - term driving force is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [44]. - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on long positions and look for high - selling opportunities, and sell call options at the same time. Pay attention to the range of EG [4,380 - 4,430] [45]. Methanol - Market Review: On August 8, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,393 (-3) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,383 (-5) yuan/ton. The East China basis was 10 (+2) yuan/ton, the port basis was - 3 (+3) yuan/ton, and the MA9 - 1 spread was - 92 (+17) yuan/ton [46]. - Basic Logic: The domestic maintenance devices have resumed production, and overseas devices have increased their loads. The supply pressure is increasing, and the 8 - month arrivals are expected to be high. The demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. The cost support is stabilizing. The market is expected to be bearish [46]. - Strategy Recommendation: Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, sell call options, and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Gradually take profit on the 9 - 1 reverse spread. Pay attention to the range of MA [2,365 - 2,395] [47]. Urea - Market Review: On August 8, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,760 (-20) yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,728 (-9) yuan/ton. The UR9 - 1 spread was - 23 (-3) yuan/ton, and the Shandong basis was 32 (-11) yuan/ton [49]. - Basic Logic: The operating load of urea devices is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is rising. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. The inventory is decreasing but still at a high level in the past five years. The cost side has some support. Be cautiously bullish [50]. - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on short positions of the 09 contract and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the range of UR [1,710 - 1,740] [51]. Asphalt - Market Review: On August 11, the BU main contract closed at 3,512 yuan/ton, up 0.03% month - on - month. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3,680 (-80) yuan/ton, 3,730 (-50) yuan/ton, and 3,580 (0) yuan/ton respectively [53]. - Basic Logic: The cost side of crude oil is under pressure due to OPEC+ production increase, and the asphalt raw material supply is relatively sufficient. The current asphalt profit is fair, but the cracking spread is at a high level, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has declined in the north due to precipitation, and the price is under pressure in the medium - long term [54]. - Strategy Recommendation: The cracking spread and the BU - FU spread are at high levels, and the valuation is high. As OPEC gradually expands production, the raw material supply is relatively sufficient. It is advisable to lay out short positions with a light position. Pay attention to the range of BU [3,450 - 3,550] [55]. Propylene - Market Review: The PL2601 contract closed at 6,491 yuan/ton [58]. - Basic Logic: The Zhenhua device had an unexpected shutdown, causing the spot price to rise sharply, and the futures price became at a discount to the Shandong spot price. The cost support of PDH is weakening, and although the operating rates of PDH and MTO have marginally increased, the downstream demand is insufficient. The PP powder operating rate is at a low level in the same period, and the factory inventory has been accumulating for five consecutive weeks, remaining at a high level in the same period. The fundamentals are still in an over - supply structure. However, the absolute price is low [59]. - Strategy Recommendation: Try to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of PL [6,400 - 6,600] [59].