中辉有色观点-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, suggesting a focus on long - position opportunities, with a mid - to - long - term strategic allocation recommendation [1] - Silver: ★★, indicating a long - position strategy after a decline, with a long - term upward trend [1] - Copper: ★★, recommending trial long positions on dips, with a long - term optimistic outlook [1] - Zinc: ★, showing a bearish trend, suggesting short - position opportunities at high prices [1] - Lead: ★, with a bearish trend and the price under pressure [1] - Tin: ★, having a short - term rebound trend [1] - Aluminum: ★, with the price under pressure [1] - Nickel: ★★, suggesting short - position opportunities on rebounds [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★, with a cautious long - position recommendation [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, with a long - position recommendation [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, with a long - position recommendation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple factors affecting various non - ferrous and new - energy metals, including policies, inflation expectations, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels. It provides investment strategies for different metals based on these factors, such as long - position or short - position operations at appropriate times [1]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Trump cooled down the meeting, and there was news that the Sino - US tariff might be postponed for 90 days. Trump stated that gold would not be taxed. Also, the inflation expectation rose this week, leading to an obvious adjustment in gold prices [2]. - Basic Logic: Trump's new policy exempts gold from tariffs, causing a short - term decline in physical demand. The market is trading inflation expectations, with a high probability of a September rate cut and an expected 1 - 2 rate cuts within the year. Trump cooled down the US - Russia summit. In the long run, gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gold may find support around 770 in the short term, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver follows gold's decline, and long positions can be taken after it stops falling. The trading range is 9100 - 9300 [4]. Copper - Market Review: The overnight Shanghai copper futures gapped down and rebounded under pressure [7]. - Industrial Logic: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and the subsequent refined copper production may decrease marginally. It is currently the consumption off - season, but demand is expected to pick up during the peak seasons. LME copper inventory accumulation has slowed down, and domestic social copper inventory is tight, stimulating refined copper consumption. The annual copper supply - demand is in a tight balance [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: The US inflation data is about to be released. The US dollar's rebound puts pressure on copper prices. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. In the long term, copper is still bullish. The Shanghai copper price is expected to be in the range of [78000, 80000], and the London copper price in the range of [9600, 9900] dollars per ton [8]. Zinc - Market Review: London zinc rose and then fell, and Shanghai zinc rebounded under pressure [10]. - Industrial Logic: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant, and the production of refined zinc is increasing. The demand side is affected by tariffs and the off - season, leading to inventory accumulation in the domestic market [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: The US inflation data is about to be released. The US dollar's rebound puts pressure on zinc prices. It is recommended to wait and see for now. In the long term, short positions can be established at high prices. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to be in the range of [22200, 22800], and the London zinc price in the range of [2750, 2850] dollars per ton [11]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina rebounded and then fell [13]. - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost has decreased, and inventory is rising while demand is weak. For alumina, the supply from Guinea is stable, and the supply is expected to be abundant in the short term [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices rebounded in the short term, and stainless steel also showed a rebound trend [17]. - Industrial Logic: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and the production of refined nickel is increasing. Stainless steel production cuts are weakening, and there is still an oversupply pressure during the off - season [18]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 123000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 increased in position and reached the daily limit [21]. - Industrial Logic: Terminal demand is about to enter the peak season, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The market is speculating on production suspension news, and funds are sensitive to positive information [22]. - Strategy Recommendation: The speculation on supply continues, and long positions can be held in the range of [85000 - 89000] [23].