股市成?占优，债市仍然承压

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a bullish bias", for stock index options is "oscillating", and for treasury bond futures is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures present expanding growth opportunities, with a suggestion to over - allocate small - cap growth styles and hold IM. Stock index options should adopt an offensive strategy, switching to a bull spread portfolio. Treasury bond futures remain under pressure and require caution [6][7][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The basis of IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month contracts are - 6.51 points, - 1.50 points, - 23.56 points, - 18.34 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 1.66 points, 2.68 points, 0.54 points, 9.59 points. The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, IM are 11.2 points, - 1.0 point, 69.4 points, 74.4 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 2.4 points, - 0.6 point, - 3.0 points, - 0.8 point. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, IM change by 14212 lots, 6800 lots, 9202 lots, 25544 lots. - The market remained strong on Monday, with the ChiNext Index and the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Index rising nearly 2%. The market volume approached 1.9 trillion. The new energy and computer sectors led the gains. The market focus is on the growth area, showing signs of partial spread, and the trend of capital reallocation is clear. It is recommended to over - allocate small - cap growth styles, and IM is preferred among stock index futures. Potential observation windows are the earnings season in August and the parade in early September [6] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The market turnover increased by 40.41%, and the PCR of the CSI 1000 stock index option positions increased by 6.15%. The implied volatility of the CSI 1000 stock index option increased significantly. The market trading sentiment is active, and call options are entering the market. It is recommended to switch to a bull spread portfolio [6] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts are 76606 lots, 56309 lots, 34103 lots, 111356 lots respectively, with a one - day change of 17352 lots, 7436 lots, 7715 lots, 22612 lots. The positions are 157180 lots, 108276 lots, 78794 lots, 92576 lots respectively, with a one - day change of - 8769 lots, - 3629 lots, - 3287 lots, - 1193 lots. The spreads between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts of T, TF, TS, TL are 0.105 yuan, - 0.045 yuan, - 0.038 yuan, 0.430 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of 0, 0.010 yuan, 0.014 yuan, 0.060 yuan. The cross - variety spreads of TF2 - T, TS2 - TF, TS4 - T, T3 - TL's current - quarter contracts are 102.975 yuan, 98.993 yuan, 300.961 yuan, 206.885 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of - 0.065 yuan, 0.065 yuan, 0.065 yuan, 0.285 yuan. The basis of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts are 0.001 yuan, 0.020 yuan, 0.019 yuan, 0.150 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of - 0.039 yuan, - 0.033 yuan, 0.002 yuan, - 0.063 yuan. - The central bank conducted 1120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 5448 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The rise in risk appetite and the strengthening of commodities may pressure the bond market. The tightening of the capital market also had a negative impact on the bond market. Although the bond market has shown some recovery, the bullish sentiment is unstable, and policy factors may cause significant disturbances. Trend strategy: be cautiously bearish. Hedging strategy: focus on short - hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: the arbitrage space of the main contracts may be limited. Curve strategy: focus on steepening the yield curve [7][8][9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The calendar includes economic indicators such as China's July M2 money supply annual rate, new RMB loans from the beginning of the year to July, and social financing scale from the beginning of the year to July, as well as the US July CPI annual rate and PPI annual rate, and China's July total retail sales of consumer goods annual rate [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - In the field of artificial intelligence and agriculture, a research team proposed the concept of crop - robot collaborative design, developed an intelligent breeding robot, and established an "intelligent robot breeding factory", which is expected to break through the bottleneck of soybean hybrid breeding. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the implementation regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law. - The Central Government Bond Registration and Clearing Co., Ltd. simplified the investment process for overseas central bank - type institutions. - Hangzhou solicited public opinions on a draft regulation to promote the development of the embodied intelligent robot industry, including infrastructure planning, core technology direction, and platform construction [11][12][13]