Workflow
能源化策略报:能化链当前?盾较?,延续震荡整理态势
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-12 02:32
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is a continued pattern of consolidation, with potential disruptions from raw materials. Most of the individual product ratings are "oscillating," with some "oscillating weakly" and none with a strong positive or negative outlook [3][7][11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical chain currently has few contradictions and continues to consolidate. After experiencing the largest weekly decline since late June, crude oil futures prices stabilized slightly on Monday. The chemical chain as a whole continued to oscillate, with coal prices rising and crude oil showing signs of short - term stabilization after seven consecutive days of decline. European natural gas futures also rose due to high - temperature weather increasing power - generation demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - Crude oil prices stabilized slightly after a significant weekly decline. Global crude oil inventories increased on a weekly basis, with a significant drop in Indian on - shore inventories and a change in India's import rhythm. The chemical chain showed an overall oscillating trend, with some products experiencing inventory changes and price fluctuations [1] 3.2 Individual Product Analysis - Crude Oil: Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the focus is on the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [7] - Asphalt: It has broken through the important support level of 3500 yuan/ton, and the futures price is expected to move in the direction of least resistance. The absolute price is over - valued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [7] - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It is oscillating weakly. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and geopolitical upgrades will only cause short - term price disturbances [7][8] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The futures price follows the oscillation of crude oil and is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [9] - Methanol: The inland market remains relatively strong, and the price is oscillating. There may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - month contracts [22] - Urea: The market is mainly in a stalemate, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. The short - term fundamentals cannot provide effective support [22][23] - Ethylene Glycol (EG): Port inventory accumulation is not sustainable, and the medium - term price support is strengthening. The price is expected to oscillate within a certain range [16][19] - PX: The price of oil has stopped falling slightly, and the chemical products are in the stage of bottom - consolidation. The short - term cost still provides some support, and the price decline space is limited [11] - PTA: The sales volume of polyester filament has increased, boosting market sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate, and the focus is on the implementation of major factory maintenance at the beginning of August [12][13] - Short - Fiber: The sales are mediocre, and the market is in a consolidation phase. The price follows the movement of raw materials, and the bottom support is strengthening [19][20] - Bottle Chip: The raw materials have stabilized, supporting the bottom of the price. The price follows the cost of raw materials in the short term [20][21] - PP: Affected differently by oil and coal, the price is oscillating. The supply side still has an increasing trend, and the demand side is in the off - peak to peak season transition [27][28] - Propylene (PL): Supported by spot maintenance, the PP - PL spread around 600 is considered reasonable, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [28] - Plastic (LLDPE): The maintenance rate has decreased, and inventory has increased. The price is oscillating, and the supply side still faces certain pressure [26] - Pure Benzene: Import arrivals have decreased, and downstream production has started. The buying sentiment has increased this week, and the market structure has turned to Back. The overall inventory is expected to decrease slightly in August [13][14] - Styrene: The supply - demand outlook is still weak, and attention should be paid to the accumulation of factory inventory. The non - integrated profit has reached a neutral level [15][16] - PVC: The cost provides support, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure comes from high supply and continuous inventory accumulation [31] - Caustic Soda: The spot price has stabilized, and the price is temporarily oscillating. The 50% caustic soda price has rebounded, which has a certain boosting effect on the futures price [32] 3.3 Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spreads: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.67 with no change, and Dubai's M1 - M2 spread being 0.75 with a 0.01 change [34] - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each product has corresponding basis and warehouse - receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 199 with a change of - 83, and the number of warehouse receipts is 76670 [35] - Inter - product Spreads: There are various inter - product spread data, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 335 with a change of - 1 [36] 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Specific monitoring data for products such as methanol, urea, styrene, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, asphalt, crude oil, LPG, fuel oil, LLDPE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda are provided, but detailed data summaries are not presented in the text [37][49][60]