弱美元支撑有色，但仍需重视需求走弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report provides investment ratings for various non - ferrous metals and related products, with most being rated as "震荡" (sideways movement), some as "震荡偏弱" (sideways with a weak bias). The specific ratings are as follows: - Copper: Sideways [7] - Alumina: Sideways [7] - Aluminum: Sideways [9] - Aluminum Alloy: Sideways [10] - Zinc: Sideways with a weak bias [12] - Lead: Sideways [13] - Nickel: Sideways in the short - term, hold short positions in the medium - to - long - term [20] - Stainless Steel: Sideways in the short - term [21] - Tin: Sideways [22] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall non - ferrous metals: Weak US dollar supports non - ferrous metals, but the weakening demand needs to be emphasized. In the short - to - medium - term, the supply - demand situation is gradually loosening, and the risk of weakening demand is increasing, which exerts negative pressure on the prices of base metals. It is recommended to short copper and zinc on rallies. In the long - term, the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China still exists, and there are still supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin, so the supply - demand is expected to tighten, which supports the prices of base metals [1] - Individual metals: - Copper: Overseas recession risk rises, and copper prices are under pressure [2][6] - Alumina: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and alumina is under sideways pressure [2][7] - Aluminum: Pay attention to consumption, and aluminum prices continue to rise [2][8] - Aluminum Alloy: Strong cost support, and the price is in high - level sideways movement [2][9] - Zinc: The price of the black series rebounds again, and zinc prices are in high - level sideways movement [2][11] - Lead: Cost still provides support, and lead prices move sideways [2][12] - Nickel: Market sentiment fluctuates, and nickel prices move in a wide range [2][14] - Stainless Steel: The price of nickel iron continues to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price moves up [2][21] - Tin: Raw material supply remains tight, and tin prices are in high - level sideways movement [2][22] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Information: The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products starting from August 1. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate. In July, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased significantly. As of August 11, copper inventory decreased slightly. The US July non - farm payrolls data was far below expectations [6] - Main Logic: Macroeconomic factors show that overseas recession risk rises, and copper prices are under pressure. The supply of copper raw materials is still tight, and the risk of smelter production cuts increases. The downstream replenishment willingness weakens, and the upward momentum of copper prices weakens. Investors are becoming more cautious as the expiration date of the reciprocal tariff approaches [7] - Outlook: Copper supply constraints still exist, and inventory is still at a low level. However, demand is marginally weakening, and the US copper tariff is unfavorable to the Shanghai copper price. Copper is expected to show a sideways pattern [7] Alumina - Information: On August 11, the spot price of alumina in various regions decreased slightly. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and the winning price decreased in the low - price range. The alumina warehouse receipts increased [7] - Main Logic: In the short - term, the alumina market is dominated by anti - involution sentiment and warehouse receipt issues, with high volatility. Fundamentally, smelters have sufficient low - cost ores, and the operating capacity has recovered to a high level. The supply - demand balance shows an obvious surplus, inventory is accumulating, and the spot price is slightly weakening [7] - Outlook: In the short - term, alumina is expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range sideways movement. Try shorting on rallies based on warehouse receipt changes, and gradually close out the 9 - 1 reverse spread [8] Aluminum - Information: On August 11, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased slightly. The inventory of aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas increased. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased. The US imposed new tariffs on multiple countries [8] - Main Logic: In the short - term, the US non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, and the new round of US tariffs on multiple countries was in line with expectations. The supply - side operating capacity is stable, and the marginal change is small. The demand - side is in the off - season, with low initial - stage operating rates and weak demand. Inventory is accumulating, and the aluminum price is expected to move sideways in the short - term [9] - Outlook: The short - term consumption situation and inventory accumulation rhythm need to be observed, and the price is expected to move in a range [9] Aluminum Alloy - Information: On August 11, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged. The average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased. Some aluminum - related projects in the US are under construction or in operation. The performance of Shunbo Alloy in H1 2025 was announced, and the retail sales of the passenger car market in July decreased [10] - Main Logic: The short - term supply - demand situation is weak on both sides. The scrap aluminum price is firm, providing cost support. The supply - side off - season operating rate continues to decline, and the demand - side is in a strong off - season atmosphere. The inventory shows a pattern of decreasing factory inventory and increasing social inventory. The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to move in a range [10] - Outlook: In the short - term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are in low - level sideways movement, and the price follows that of electrolytic aluminum. There is room for an upward movement in the future, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [11] Zinc - Information: On August 11, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a discount to the main contract. As of August 11, the inventory of zinc ingots increased. A lead - zinc smelting project in Xinjiang was put into production [11] - Main Logic: Macroeconomically, the demand for steel is stabilizing, and the black - series product prices are rebounding. The US non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, and the US dollar index declined. The short - term supply of zinc ore is loosening, and smelters' profitability is good. The domestic consumption is in the traditional off - season, and the demand is generally expected. In the long - term, the supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand growth is limited [12] - Outlook: In August, zinc ingot production will remain at a high level, and downstream demand is in the off - season. Zinc ingot inventory may continue to accumulate. However, the rebound of black - series product prices and the short - term squeeze on LME zinc suggest that the zinc price will show a sideways movement [12] Lead - Information: On August 11, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of lead ingots was stable. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts increased [12] - Main Logic: In the spot market, the discount is stable, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries is stable, and the production of recycled lead is affected by environmental protection. Some primary lead smelters are resuming production. On the demand side, some battery factories are on holiday due to high temperatures, but the lead - acid battery market has an active trade - in activity [13] - Outlook: The US economic recession risk is increasing, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation suppresses the US dollar index. The supply of lead ingots may continue to increase slightly this week, and the supply - demand is expected to be slightly in surplus. The cost of recycled lead provides strong support, and the lead price is expected to move sideways [14] Nickel - Information: On August 11, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased. There were multiple events in the nickel industry, such as asset acquisitions, investment plans, and production adjustments [14] - Main Logic: Market sentiment still dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. The raw material supply may loosen after the rainy season. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has slightly declined. The surplus of electrolytic nickel is serious, and the inventory has accumulated significantly [20] - Outlook: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 210,000 tons. Nickel prices will move in a wide range in the short - term and hold short positions in the medium - to - long - term [20] Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts increased slightly. The spot price of stainless steel was at a discount to the main contract. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased [21] - Main Logic: The price of nickel iron has stopped falling and rebounded, and the price of chrome iron is stable. The stainless - steel production in July decreased, and the supply - side over - capacity pressure has been relieved. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of the peak - season demand [21] - Outlook: The cost has increased recently. Attention should be paid to the possibility of production cuts by steel mills. The market's acceptance of high - price products is limited. The stainless - steel price is expected to move in a range in the short - term [21] Tin - Information: On August 11, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of tin remained unchanged [22] - Main Logic: The resumption of production in Wa State does not change the tight supply of tin ore in China. The export of refined tin in Indonesia may decline, and African tin production may be affected by the rainy season. The supply - side tightness provides strong support for the tin price. However, the terminal demand for tin is marginally weakening in the second half of the year, and inventory reduction is difficult [22] - Outlook: The tight supply of tin ore provides support for the tin price. The tin price is expected to move sideways. The volatility of the tin price may increase in August [24]