国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250812

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints - The market trends of various energy and chemical commodities are diverse, with some showing a downward trend, some in a shock state, and others having potential upward momentum. For example, PX and PTA are trending weakly, while rubber and paper pulp are oscillating. The report also suggests specific trading strategies for some commodities, such as going long on MEG and short on PTA/PX [2][12]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Supply-demand pressure is increasing, and the trend is weak. The short - term PXN has support, and the mid - term trend remains weak. Suggest a short - position on the main contract and a reverse spread on the monthly difference [5][12]. - PTA: The unilateral trend is weak. With low processing fees, pay attention to unplanned production cuts. Hold a long - MEG and short - PTA position in the medium term, and conduct a positive spread on the 9 - 1 monthly difference [5][12]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is weakly oscillating. Hold a long - MEG and short - PTA position in the medium term. Take profit at around 0 for the 9 - 1 positive spread and operate within the - 50 to 0 range. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [5][13]. Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating. The trading volume and open interest have increased, and the inventory in Qingdao has decreased. The trend strength is neutral [14][15][17]. Synthetic Rubber - The fundamentals provide support, and it operates within the valuation range. Short - term is slightly strong and oscillating, and the mid - term lacks upward driving force. The trend strength is neutral [18][20]. Asphalt - It mainly oscillates following crude oil. The production has increased, the factory inventory has accumulated, and the social inventory has decreased. The trend strength is neutral [21][35]. LLDPE - The trend still faces pressure. The macro and cost factors are unfavorable, the supply pressure is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The trend strength is weak [36][37]. PP - Short - term short - selling should be cautious, and the trend still has pressure. The cost is weak, the demand has no obvious bright spots, and the supply pressure is increasing. The trend strength is neutral [40][41]. Caustic Soda - Bullish on the peak - season contracts. The previous decline was due to high production and low demand. The cost support is strong, and the peak - season demand is expected. The trend strength is strong [44][46]. Pulp - It is oscillating. The international pulp mills are firm on prices, the port inventory has decreased, and the downstream procurement sentiment has recovered. The trend strength is neutral [50][53]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The price has declined recently, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average. The trend strength is neutral [56][57]. Methanol - It is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is tightened due to maintenance and production cuts, and the terminal demand provides support. The trend strength is neutral [59][62]. Urea - It is under oscillating pressure. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the short - term is in an interval - oscillation pattern. The trend strength is neutral [64][66]. Styrene - Focus on compressing profits. The downstream demand is weak, but pure benzene is temporarily strong. The trend strength is neutral [68][69]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The market is generally weak, with prices slowly declining and weak downstream demand. The trend strength is neutral [71][72]. LPG - The disk valuation is low, and attention should be paid to the risk of position reduction. The trend strength is neutral [74]. Propylene - Supply - demand is tightening, and the price has certain support. The trend strength is strong [74]. PVC - It is weakly oscillating. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, with high production and inventory. The trend strength is weak [84][85]. Fuel Oil - The night - session is weak, and it mainly shows an oscillating trend. The low - sulfur fuel oil is in an adjustment phase, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly. The trend strength of both is neutral [88]. Freight Index (European Line) - Hold the short positions on the October contract as appropriate. The freight rates of European and US - West routes have declined. [90]