欧盟碳市场行情简报（2025年第141期）-20250812

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests a trading strategy of buying low and selling high within the price range of €63 - 76. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the EU carbon market. Positive factors include increased buying due to approaching compliance deadlines and strong auctions in the German primary market. Negative factors are the widening short - term marginal cost difference between gas and coal, which encourages power generation to use more natural gas [1]. 3. Market Conditions Summary Primary Market - The auction price was 72.14 euros/ton, with a 2.91% increase, and the bid - cover ratio was 1.67 [1]. - On August 8, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.14 euros/ton, the auction volume was 160,700 tons, and the auction revenue was 115.93 million euros. On August 7, 2025, the EUA auction price was 70.10 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324,550 tons, and the auction revenue was 227.51 million euros [2]. Secondary Market - The EUA futures settlement price was 73.21 euros/ton, up 2.01%, and the trading volume was 28,200 lots, with an increase of 0.28 [1]. - On August 8, 2025, compared with August 7, 2025, the futures settlement price increased from 71.77 to 73.21 euros/ton, the trading volume increased from 2.54 to 2.82 million lots, and the open interest remained unchanged. The spot settlement price increased from 71.14 to 72.56 euros/ton, and the spot trading volume decreased from 2462 to 1602 lots [3]. 4. Strategy and Influencing Factors Strategy - The strategy is to buy low and sell high, with the price range between €63 and 76 [1]. Influencing Factors - Positive: As the compliance deadline approaches, compliance demand drives buying, and the German primary market auction is strong [1]. - Negative: The short - term marginal cost difference between gas and coal further widens, encouraging power generation to use more natural gas instead of coal [1]. - Others: Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska this Friday to discuss the Ukraine issue, and it is hinted that the final armistice agreement may involve territorial exchange [1].