Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is waiting for new direction from the US - Russia talks, and there is inventory accumulation pressure after the peak season. It is recommended to buy SC2510 out - of - the - money options on dips [2]. - For precious metals, due to the clarification of gold tariff rumors and potential market sentiment swings, it is advisable to wait patiently for pull - back opportunities [3]. - In the base metals market, prices show different trends. For example, copper prices are affected by mine resumptions and inflation indicators; aluminum prices are in short - term oscillations; zinc prices are expected to face resistance on rebounds [4][5][8]. - In the energy and chemical market, fuels face inventory and demand issues, while asphalt has limited supply pressure and potential price support [22][23]. - In the agricultural products market, the soybean and bean - related products are affected by weather, trade policies, and inventory conditions, with no clear trend yet [36]. - In the financial market, the stock index is expected to maintain a risk - preference - positive trend, and the bond market is under pressure but may show signs of stabilization [48][49]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices rose. After continuous declines last week, the market awaits US - Russia talks. There is inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter. A double - buy strategy for SC2510 out - of - the - money options on dips is recommended [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals and weak demand. Singapore's inventory is high, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure. The price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is expected to shrink [22]. - Asphalt: August production is down. Supply pressure is limited, demand is weak but has repair expectations, and low inventory supports prices. The BU crack spread is expected to be strong [23]. Precious Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight, precious metals declined. After Trump clarified gold tariff rumors, market sentiment may swing due to upcoming events. It is recommended to wait for pull - back opportunities [3]. Base Metals - Copper: Overnight, copper prices closed lower. Some Chilean mines resumed work. The high - tariff issue between China and the US is on hold. It is advisable to hold previous short positions [4]. - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum slightly corrected. Inventory increased at the beginning of the week, and consumption is in the off - season. Short - term oscillations are expected, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - Zinc: LME zinc inventory is decreasing, and the Fed's September rate - cut expectation is rising. The zinc market is expected to face resistance on rebounds, and short positions are recommended above 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Lead: The fundamentals of Shanghai lead lack contradictions. Supply and demand are in a state of offsetting each other. It is advisable to hold long positions around 16,600 yuan/ton [9]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Shanghai nickel is in the mid - to - late stage of a rebound. It is recommended to enter short positions actively as the market returns to fundamentals [10]. - Tin: Overnight, tin prices rose briefly. Low inventory provides support. It is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions at low prices [11]. Chemicals - Urea: The urea market is in the agricultural off - season. Supply is relatively abundant, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly without new positive factors [24]. - Methanol: Coal price increases have compressed the profit of coal - to - methanol in the northwest. Inland inventory is low and decreasing, while coastal inventory is expected to increase rapidly. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream restocking [25]. - Pure Benzene: Oil prices stopped falling, and pure benzene prices oscillated. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in the mid - to - late third quarter, and it is recommended to trade the monthly spread [26]. - Benzene Ethylene: The cost support is weak. Although supply decreased and demand increased slightly, the upward price drive is insufficient [27]. - Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene: The supply of propylene is supported, while the supply of polyethylene and polypropylene has limited changes. Overall, the upward price drive is insufficient [28]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production and weak demand. Caustic soda shows a strong performance in the short term, but there is supply pressure in the long term [29]. Agricultural Products - Soybean & Bean Meal: Affected by Trump's remarks and weather, the market is in low - level oscillations. The US soybean is in good condition, and the soybean meal market is expected to oscillate without a clear trend before the tariff issue is resolved [36]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The palm oil market is optimistic in the short term, driving the soybean oil market. It is recommended to buy on dips, considering the long - term development of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia [37]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the US Department of Agriculture's report and China - Canada relations. There may be an opportunity for the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal to widen [38]. - Corn: Dalian corn futures are in low - level oscillations. The market atmosphere is weak, and it may continue to be weak without policy guidance [40]. - Pig: The spot price of pigs is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended for industries to hedge on price rebounds [41]. - Egg: The egg futures market follows the logic of de - capacity through price decline. Attention should be paid to spot prices, demand in the peak season, and cold - storage egg release [42]. - Cotton: The US cotton production is expected to be stable. The domestic cotton inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [43]. - Sugar: The US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic sugar market is expected to oscillate due to limited positive factors [44]. - Apple: The apple futures price is rising. The market focuses on the new - season output estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Wood: The wood market's supply - demand situation is improving, and it is recommended to take a long - position approach [46]. - Paper Pulp: The paper pulp price is rising. The inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to wait and see or take light long positions on dips [47]. Financial Products - Stock Index: A - shares are at a high level with incremental trading. The risk - preference is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [48]. - Treasury Bond: The bond market is under pressure but may stabilize. The yield curve is expected to steepen, and it is recommended to be cautious in taking long positions [49].
综合晨报-20250812
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-08-12 02:56