Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View The Sino-US tariff policy has been implemented, and the domestic short - term macro situation has entered a window period. The market is more concerned about the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The black - series as a whole maintains a high - level consolidation cycle. Given the current high blast - furnace profits and the non - off - season characteristics of terminal demand, it is expected that the domestic demand will remain at a relatively high level in the short term. The supply - side pressure is not significant, the supply and demand of iron ore are in a stage of balance, and the port inventory tends to be stable. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate at a high level [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Supply Foreign ore shipments will gradually enter the seasonal recovery cycle, but the overall month - on - month growth rate is low. After the maintenance period of Australian BHP and FMG mines ended, shipments did not rebound rapidly. Brazilian shipments in this period remained at a moderately high level. Due to the month - on - month decline in shipments in July, the short - term arrivals in August are expected to remain low, and the actual supply - side pressure is not prominent [3]. Demand The daily average molten iron output in China has declined for three consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. The current daily average molten iron output is 240.32 (month - on - month - 0.39). The current profitability rate of steel mills is continuously rising, and the blast - furnace profit level is relatively good. The short - flow process has fallen into full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the molten iron output can remain at a high level in the later stage [3]. Inventory The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains relatively high, and the inventory level at steel mills has slightly increased. Due to the weakening of weather influence and concentrated arrivals, the port inventory has increased in this period. As shipments rebound in the future, it is expected that the inventory will generally remain stable in the short term [3]. Price The price will fluctuate in a range. The price range of the i2601 contract is 770 yuan/ton - 800 yuan/ton, and the price range of the foreign FE09 contract is 102 - 105 US dollars/ton [3].
铁矿石：中美关税政策落地，短期矿价区间运行
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-08-12 03:20