格林大华期货研究院专题报告华东纯苯产业调研报告（一）

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Some factories mainly source pure benzene from Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia due to geographical and cost advantages. With less pure benzene supply from Europe and the United States in the second half of the year and South Korea's exports to the US being affected, the import volume is expected to decline [2]. - The overall demand shows resilience. The "rush to export" and "home appliances to the countryside" policies have overdrafted some demand, and there is more speculative demand downstream. The demand in the peak season from September to October will improve month - on - month, similar to traditional peak seasons in previous years [2]. - The price difference between pure benzene and styrene has returned to the normal level of around 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about their future price difference [2]. Company - Specific Summaries 1. Styrene Producer A - It has a 600,000 - ton styrene plant and 400,000 tons of pure benzene, all of which are externally sourced. Pricing can be fixed - price or through warehouse receipts. Transportation methods include shipping, pipeline, and mechanical transport [4]. - The main source of pure benzene is South Korea. The import accounts for 60% of the supply, and the proportion of contracts has decreased due to industry competition [5]. - Styrene is shipped by road. It has 400,000 tons of downstream polystyrene (PS) production, with a plan to add 200,000 tons next year. There is about 20,000 tons of monthly external sales [6]. - PS is sold entirely in the spot market, with flexible production based on terminal demand and price. Its downstream products include transparent and modified PS [7]. - The demand for styrene remains resilient, but there is demand overdraft and substitution demand [8]. - Pure benzene spot contracts are not suitable for hedging currently but may be considered later [9]. 2. Styrene and Downstream Trader B - There are about 23 - 24 upstream pure benzene refineries, with an annual commodity volume of 2.2 - 2.3 million tons in the East China market [10]. - The ABS industry demand is about 6 million tons, with 230,000 - 250,000 tons per month in the East China market. Intense competition has led to low prices [11]. - Pricing for traders is weekly, and for large customers, it is negotiated on a case - by - case basis [12]. - Inventory is maintained at a normal level [13]. - The demand from September to October will improve but is similar to traditional peak seasons [14]. - Nearly 30 subordinate units are participating in the futures market [15]. 3. Downstream Manufacturer C - It focuses on the production and sales of cleaning equipment, with products sold in China, the Middle East, North America, and parts of South - Western Europe [16]. - Each floor - cleaning machine uses 1.2 - 1.5 kg of ABS. The company holds a 1/3 market share in the domestic market [17]. - ABS procurement uses quarterly pricing, with speculative inventory and long - term material locking [18]. - Domestic product delivery takes 35 days without stockpiling and 15 days with stockpiling. Overseas delivery takes 1 - 2 months [19]. - Export products enjoy tax rebates, and domestic products had subsidies that ended in May - June. Subsidies overdrafted demand and reduced "618" promotions [20]. 4. EPS and PS Manufacturer D - It is a large domestic manufacturer with an annual EPS capacity of 2.2 million tons and a PS capacity of 900,000 tons. Benzene procurement is 70% contract - based and 25 - 30% spot - based [21]. - Raw material inventory is normal, with at least one - week safety stock [22]. - Product inventory is at a normal level. EPS exports have increased, especially to South Korea. Modified EPS is entirely for export [23]. - EPS downstream demand is mainly from external wall insulation, home appliances, and e - commerce cold - chain logistics. Real - estate downturn has reduced demand [24]. - EPS profit is not as good as expected, depending on the payment period. It has full - cash transactions with upstream suppliers [25]. - Trade barriers in Indonesia have little impact on EPS exports [26]. - EPS industry exports increased in the first half of the year, and the second half is expected to be similar [27]. - The company uses futures for physical delivery to avoid price fluctuations [28]. 5. Styrene Trader E - It is a pure benzene and styrene paper - delivery warehouse. It trades based on the warehouse advantage, with imports mainly from Southeast Asia and Japan/South Korea [29]. - Road transport is a profitable trading mode this year. It also engages in arbitrage and EPS exports [30]. - Styrene is sourced from various domestic suppliers. EPS procurement is order - based, with half being contract - based [31]. - Styrene is sold mainly in the Yangtze River Delta. Downstream inventory is sufficient [33]. - It does not accept hydrogenated benzene for storage. It participates in futures trading in multiple ways [34][35]. - Pure benzene futures have low liquidity in some contracts. The company expects lower imports in the second half of the year [36][37]. 6. Pure Benzene and Styrene Trader F - It has an annual pure benzene trade volume of 500,000 tons, an ABS trade volume of 170,000 - 180,000 tons, and a styrene trade volume of 200,000 - 300,000 tons [38]. - Pure benzene procurement is half - contract and half - spot. It sells hydrogenated benzene to specific factories [39]. - Pure benzene pricing refers to port prices and Sinopec's prices. Solid and liquid chemicals have different pricing methods [40]. - Pure benzene and styrene inventory is at a relatively high level this year [41]. - The second - half export outlook is not optimistic due to market volatility and downstream demand issues. Some products have increased exports but low profitability [42]. - Excluding macro factors, styrene price fluctuations will narrow. There may be short - term market opportunities [44]. - Plastic factories use futures for point - pricing. The company engages in hedging and basis trading, with limited use of options [45].