镍与不锈钢日评：“反内卷”情绪变化快、波动大-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - For nickel, on August 11, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose in volume, with the trading volume at 112,549 lots (+37,685) and the open interest at 77,193 lots (-1,762). The LME nickel rose 1.12%. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The nickel ore price remained flat, the nickel ore arrivals at ports increased last week, and port inventories accumulated. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed, domestic production in August decreased while Indonesian production increased, and nickel - iron inventories accumulated. Domestic electrolytic nickel production in August increased, and export profits shrank. On the demand side, ternary production increased, stainless - steel plant production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. In terms of inventory, SHFE inventory increased, LME inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and bonded - area inventory decreased. Overall, the pure nickel fundamentals are loose, but the expectation of Fed rate cuts has strengthened, so the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, on August 11, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated upward, with the trading volume at 202,613 lots (+115,942) and the open interest at 135,260 lots (+64,070). The spot market trading was fair, and the basis premium narrowed. The SHFE inventory increased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 629,100 tons (-15,500). On the supply side, stainless - steel production increased in August. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. At the cost end, the price of high - nickel pig iron rose, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat. Currently, the impact of macro sentiment is relatively large. Although the fundamentals are loose, it will take time for the price to return to the fundamentals, so the price is expected to follow macro fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Price and Volume - Shanghai nickel futures: On August 11, the closing price of the near - month contract was 121,900 yuan/ton (+950), the trading volume was 112,549 lots (+37,685), and the open interest of the active contract was 77,193 lots (-1,762). The inventory was 20,723 tons (+102) [2]. - LME nickel: On August 11, the official spot price was 15,250 US dollars/ton (+175), the electronic - disk closing price was 15,325 US dollars/ton (+210), and the trading volume was 6,315 lots (+1,371). The total inventory was 211,296 tons (-936) [2]. Spread - In Shanghai nickel, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was 0 yuan/ton (-140), and the basis between the SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and the active contract closing price was 720 yuan/ton (-50) [2]. - In LME nickel, the LME nickel 0 - 3 months spread was - 7.83 US dollars/ton (-199.29), and the basis between the official price and the electronic - disk closing price was - 75 US dollars/ton (-40) [2]. Raw Materials - The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 0.9% (CIF) was 29 US dollars/wet ton, 1.5% (CIF) was 57 US dollars/wet ton, and 1.8% (CIF) was 78.5 US dollars/wet ton. The average freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11.5 US dollars/ton, and to Tianjin Port was 12 US dollars/ton [2]. Inventory - SMM China port nickel ore total inventory was 761 million wet tons (+9 million). SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory decreased by 500 tons, with nickel plate inventory at 4,100 tons (-500) and the total at 4,700 tons (-500). SMM pure nickel social inventory was 40,572 tons (+1,086) [2]. Stainless Steel Market Price and Volume - Shanghai stainless - steel futures: On August 11, the trading volume of the active contract was 202,613 lots (+115,942), and the open interest was 135,260 lots (+64,070). The inventory was 102,983 tons (+58) [2]. Spread - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai stainless steel was 0 yuan/ton (+5), and the basis between the 304/2B coil - trimmed (Wuxi) average price and the active contract was 425 yuan/ton (-190) [2]. Inventory - Stainless - steel spot inventory: In the 200 - series, it was 209,000 tons; in the 300 - series, it was 629,100 tons (-15,500); in the 400 - series, it was 112,400 tons (-2,500); and the total inventory was 947,000 tons (+3,100) [2]. Industry News - In July, China's power battery loading volume was 55.9 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 10.9 GWh, accounting for 19.6% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 4.9 GWh, accounting for 80.4% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.0% [2].