沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250812

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The imposition of additional tariffs may drive up inflation at the US consumer end and suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. However, the decline in the operating capacity of downstream processing has led to a week - on - week decrease in the domestic weekly social inventory of electrolytic copper, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On August 11, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai copper futures active contract was 79,020 yuan, up 530 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 70,041 lots, an increase of 27,135 lots, and the open interest was 160,884 lots, an increase of 3,992 lots. The inventory was 23,275 tons, up 2,003 tons. The average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 79,150 yuan, up 620 yuan, and the basis was 130 yuan, up 90 yuan [2]. - Spot Premium and Discount: The spot premium and discount of electrolytic copper in different regions showed different trends. In Guangzhou, it was - 20 yuan, up 20 yuan; in North China, it remained - 120 yuan; in East China, it was 25 yuan, up 30 yuan. The spread between near - month and far - month contracts also changed, with the spread between Shanghai copper near - month and Shanghai copper continuous - one being 0 yuan, up 30 yuan; the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - one and Shanghai copper continuous - two being - 30 yuan, down 50 yuan [2]. - London Copper: On August 11, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,726.5 US dollars, down 41.5 US dollars. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a significant decrease of 155,700 tons. The spreads of LME copper futures contracts also changed, with the 0 - 3 - month contract spread being - 83.25 US dollars, down 13.7 US dollars, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread being - 148.59 US dollars, down 7.1 US dollars. The ratio of Shanghai - London copper price was 8.1242, up 0.09 [2]. - COMEX Copper: The closing price of the copper futures active contract was 4.4445 US dollars, up 0.03 US dollars, and the total inventory was 265,196 tons, up 1,900 tons [2]. Important News - Production Adjustments: Multiple copper mines around the world have adjusted their production expectations. Teck Resources lowered the expected production of the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in 2025; Norilsk Nickel reduced its 2025 copper production forecast from 353,000 - 373,000 tons to 343,000 - 355,000 tons; Anglo Asian Mining's Denir11 copper mine started trial production, with an expected copper concentrate production of 4,000 tons in 2025 and 15,000 tons in 2026 and later; Zijin Mining's Kamoa - Kakula copper mine's planned mineral copper production in 2025 was reduced from 520,000 - 580,000 tons to 370,000 - 420,000 tons [2]. - Mine Incidents: Newmont's Red Chris copper mine in Canada suspended operations due to a collapse in the non - production project's underground access; Shanxi Yuncheng Yuanqu County Wulong Industrial's Luojiahe copper mine had a fume poisoning accident resulting in three deaths; Hudbay Minerals suspended the operation and exploration of the Snow Lake due to a wildfire in northern Manitoba, Canada [2]. - Mine Resumptions and New Projects: The unaffected area of Codelco's El Teniente copper mine in Chile resumed operations; the west side of Zijin Mining's Kamoa - Kakula copper mine resumed production in early June; the second - phase 160,000 - ton capacity of Jiangxi Copper's Mirador copper mine in Ecuador may be put into production in the second half of 2025; the second - phase 200,000 - ton - per - day expansion project of Julong Copper Mine may be completed by the end of 2025; the third - phase of Western Mining's Wanglong Copper Mine may increase the production scale from 1,000 tons to 3,000 tons per year, with an expected copper production of 180,000 - 200,000 tons per year; ACC Metals' Cediktene polymetallic mine's copper sulfide ore expansion project will be put into production in the first quarter of 2026, with an initial annual output of 25,000 tons; Vale's Bacalhau copper mine project in Brazil obtained an environmental permit in June and may start production in the first half of 2028 [2]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,300 - 9,500 and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper, and the support level around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance level around 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper [2].