碳酸锂日评：矿端扰动持续发酵-20250812

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Profit margins have recovered, leading to an increase in lithium carbonate production. However, disruptions at mining sites in Jiangxi have intensified. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will experience a strong and volatile trend in the short term. After the shutdown of some mines, the price has risen, and other lithium carbonate resources from the raw material end will enter the market to supplement supply, having little impact on the long - term supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Jiangxi mining end and the market's "feedback" sentiment. Short - term trading is recommended, and caution is needed when entering the market at high prices (View Score: +1) [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - Futures Market: On August 11, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit. The trading volume was 38,071 lots (-857,538), and the open interest was 317,676 lots (-3,030). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis discount widened. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 79,000 yuan/ton (+3,700), the closing price of the continuous - one contract was 80,560 yuan/ton (+3,920), etc. [3] - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipts were 19,389 tons (+560). Social inventory decreased, with smelters and other sectors reducing inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,418 tons (+692), with smelters at 20,999 tons (-959), downstream at 48,159 tons (+2,271), and other sectors at 43,260 tons (-620) [3] - Raw Material Prices: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased (840 US dollars/ton, +63), and the price of mica also rose. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,155 yuan/ton (+35) [3] - Product Prices: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 74,500 yuan/ton (+2,600), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 72,300 yuan/ton (+2,500). The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic) also increased [3] Industry News - In July, China's power battery installation volume was 55.9 GWh, a 4.0% decrease from the previous month but a 34.3% increase year - on - year. Among them, ternary battery installation volume was 10.9 GWh (19.6% of the total, a 1.9% increase from the previous month and a 3.8% decrease year - on - year), and lithium iron phosphate battery installation volume was 44.9 GWh (80.9% of the total, a 5.3% decrease from the previous month and a 49.0% increase year - on - year) [3] Supply and Demand - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials also increased. In August, the production of lithium manganate increased, and the production of lithium cobaltate decreased. The production of power batteries increased last week [3] - Demand: In July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales volume decreased from the previous month, and the 3C product shipments were average. In August, the production of energy - storage batteries increased [3]