新能源及有色金属日报：锌锭累库持续且预期不改-20250812

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market discount is still slightly weakening, and the market trading enthusiasm is poor. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and the smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply-side incremental expectation remains unchanged. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the peak consumption season expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend. However, the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is -$0.23/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,530 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -45 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 22,510 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -65 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,520 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -55 yuan/ton. [2] - Futures: On August 11, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,485 yuan/ton, closed at 22,590 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 87,765 lots, and the open interest was 93,386 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,670 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,425 yuan/ton. [3] - Inventory: As of August 11, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 119,200 tons, a change of 6,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 80,425 tons, a change of -1,075 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - The spot market discount is slightly weakening, and trading enthusiasm is low. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply - side pressure is continuously prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the peak consumption season expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention. [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6]