Report Basic Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - No prominent contradictions, lead prices mainly range-bound [1] - Report Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The supply of lead concentrates remains tight, and the TC of lead concentrates rich in gold and silver and silver-lead ore with high silver content still has downward pressure; the price of scrap batteries is slightly loose but still firm [3] - The production of primary lead smelters that had undergone maintenance earlier has recovered, and the operating rate has increased; in the secondary lead sector, affected by sewage inspections in Anhui and tight raw materials, the operating rate of some smelters has declined, and the supply has tightened regionally [3] - The demand side is cautious in purchasing. Terminal consumption is average, and electric bicycle dealers stocked up a lot in July, so they are currently consuming inventory. The price increase atmosphere in the wholesale market has faded [3] - The price of secondary lead is inverted with that of electrolytic lead, and downstream buyers prefer electrolytic lead with high cost performance. As the production of electrolytic lead recovers, factory inventories accumulate while social inventories decline. Considering the transfer of futures deliveries, social inventories may accumulate again later [3] - It is expected that the lead price will maintain a range-bound trend in the short term, with the operating range referring to 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 1.06% to 16,725 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price increased by 0.66% to 16,845 yuan/ton; LME lead closing price (electronic board) increased by 1.49% to 2,003.5 US dollars/ton [14] 3.2 Raw Material Situation - The processing fee of domestic lead concentrates remained flat at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee of imported lead concentrates decreased by 5 US dollars/dry ton to -65 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weak trend [30] - As of August 8, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous period. The market circulation of scrap batteries is limited, and the quotation is relatively firm [46] 3.3 Supply Side - The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased by 3.3 percentage points to 67.4%. The weekly output of primary lead smelters that can be delivered for settlement was 52,775 tons in the week of August 8, an increase of 4,100 tons compared to the week of August 1 [31][36] - The operating rate of secondary lead smelters decreased by 3.3 percentage points to 41.1%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 46,600 tons, a decrease from the previous week [56] 3.4 Demand Side - The operating rate of lead-acid battery manufacturers decreased by 6.61 percentage points to 65.25%. High-temperature holidays in battery enterprises in Hebei, Zhejiang and other regions led to a significant decline in overall production [64] 3.5 Import and Export - As of August 1, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,400 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the import profit was -694.14 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [77] 3.6 Inventory - As of August 7, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 71,100 tons, a decrease in inventory. Due to downstream buyers' caution and the transfer of lead ingots before delivery, social inventories decreased slightly while factory inventories accumulated [88] - As of August 8, SHFE refined lead inventory was 62,300 tons, a decrease from the previous period; LME inventory was 265,800 tons, also a decrease [91]
有色金属周报(铅):暂无突出矛盾,铅价区间整理为主-20250812
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-12 06:44