FICC日报：马士基35周价格超预期修正，关注近期马士基PSS是否会调-20250812

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Maersk in Week 35 was revised higher than expected, and attention should be paid to whether Maersk's PSS will be adjusted recently [1]. - In August, the top of the freight rate appeared, and the continuous downward revision of the freight rate brought uncertainty to the forecast of the delivery settlement price. The first - phase delivery settlement price index was announced. The freight rates of shipping companies entered a downward cycle, and the prices of various shipping alliances followed suit [5]. - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation, and the subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The December contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation [6][7]. - The strategy suggests that the main contract fluctuates weakly. For arbitrage, go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes: Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes in Week 34 were 1600/2700, and in Week 35, they opened at 1320/2200 and then rose to 1345/2250. Quotes of other shipping companies for different routes and time periods were also provided [2]. 2. Geopolitical Aspect - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he hadn't talked to Trump since making decisions regarding Gaza and planned to talk to him soon [3]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From August to October, the weekly average capacity in China - European basic ports showed different trends. There were empty sailings and TBNs in August and September, and there were also many additional ships in August [4]. - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 27, 2025, 157 container ships with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU had been delivered [8]. 4. Contract Analysis - August Contract: The freight rate reached its peak and started to decline, affecting the delivery settlement price. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11, 18, and 25. The freight rates of shipping companies such as Maersk and HPL decreased [5]. - October Contract: It is mainly for short - allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [6]. - December Contract: The off - peak and peak season pattern still exists. The risk is whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. In normal years, the Far East - Europe price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October [7]. 5. Futures and Spot Prices - As of August 11, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes was 80,523 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 53,406 lots. The closing prices of different contracts were provided. SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes were also announced [8]. 6. Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - Arbitrage: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [9].